The Dodgers, after days of rumors, traded Gavin Lux on January 6 to the Reds. It ends a nearly nine-year run for Lux in the Dodgers organization, and comes after a tough 2024 campaign. In return, the Dodgers received a Competitive Balance A draft pick, plus outfield prospect Mike Sirota.
A Look at Lux
At one point, Gavin Lux was once one of the best prospects in all of baseball. A 2016 first-round pick, Lux stormed to the Majors in 2019 after an incredible year between Double and Triple-A, hitting .347/.421/.607 (1.028 OPS) with 26 home runs. Lux hit .240 (.705 OPS) with Los Angeles over an 82-plate appearance sample size that year.
Since then, Lux has dealt with a myriad of issues, including poor offensive production, struggles in the field, and injury. His career slash line is .252/.326/.383
The now-27-year-old cracked regular playing time in 2021, slashing .242/.328/.364 (.692 OPS) that season. However, when the Dodgers traded for Trea Turner and he shifted to second in lieu of Corey Seager, he didn’t have a regular role. Lux did get more playing time once Seager left and posted a .745 OPS in 2022, primarily playing second base.
The plan was for Lux to play short in 2023 after Turner departed to Philadelphia. However, a season-ending knee injury killed that idea.
When Lux returned from injury, one assumed he would assume the everyday shortstop role. However, manager Dave Roberts was uncommitted to the idea in March. Lux struggled to make accurate throws to first base from the position, and ultimately, was pushed to second base in favor of Mookie Betts.
The new Red hit a career-high 10 home runs last year. Not to mention, he chased at a good clip; 23.1%, in the 85th percentile. However, Lux’s defense lagged, with a -2 Outs Above Average and significantly below-average arm strength.
One could argue expecations on Lux were too high, especially since his career MiLB season came in the “juiced” baseball season of 2019. For reference, Triple-A used the same baseball as the Majors. He is a talented hitter; one with a short swing, a penchant of working counts, and some pop.
Lux has largely been shielded against left-handed bats, as his offensive production against same-sided hitters has been inconsistent. While he did hit .263 against LHP in 2022, he also hit .188 in 2021 and .152 in 2024.
What the Dodgers Got
The Dodgers get a package that reportedly includes the 37th pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, plus Mike Sirota. Sirota was a third-round pick by the Reds in 2024.
Los Angeles is familiar with Sirota, as the Dodgers selected him in the 16th round three years earlier out of high school. He starred as a sophomore in college, hitting .346 (1.149 OPS) with 18 home runs with the Huskies in 2023.
But as I noted in July after the 2024 MLB Draft, Sirota didn’t look right in the spring. His numbers reflected that, as he hit only .298/.473/.513 with seven home runs and 19 stolen bases. The 21-year-old is a high-upside outfielder, with five tools. However, he had trouble with fastballs up, was also chasing away.
One was to wonder whether Sirota, a projected first-round pick before the year started, wasn’t in the right state of mind last year.
Analysis
When the Dodgers signed 2B Hyeseong Kim last week, it felt very likely that Lux’s career as a Dodger was nearly over. Kim is a left-handed bat, the same as Lux. And given how the Dodgers added themselves a significantly better defender, one who can also get on base, it made sense to sell on Lux now, rather than have him sit.
The Dodgers didn’t get a bad return; rather, it’s a strong return. Los Angeles picked up a first-round caliber talent, plus a top pick that could land the Dodgers a top-40 talent come July.
It should be noted that this pick will be the Dodgers’ highest pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. Los Angeles’ original pick went down to #40 thanks to competitive balance tax penalties.
As for the Reds, Cincinnati adds infield depth. Lux will join a crowded infield that includes Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz. The Reds traded Jonathan India, the team’s regular second baseman, to the Royals earlier in the offseason.
Given the price the Reds paid for Lux, expect Cincinnati to try to make this work at all costs. Lux does have experience playing the outfield, as he saw time in left, center, and right in 2021-22. Something to point out.
The Reds could also get creative at times, much like the team did in 2023, with infield positioning. Matt McLain can play short and showed very good range and speed in his rookie season. That could mean instances where Lux plays second, McLain gets short on some days, and Elly De La Cruz getting either the DH spot, or perhaps third.
De La Cruz played 32 games at third in 2023. However, his numbers at short — +15 Outs Above Average and elite arm strength — make it tough to move him off right now.
It was the second notable move the Reds made on January 6. Read up on what the Reds got in ex-Rangers pitcher Owen White.