Reds to Re-Sign Emilio Pagan: What to Make of Move

Over the first month of the offseason, the relief pitcher market has been the hottest sector of the market. Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams have come off the board. Now, add Emilio Pagan to the mix. Pagan, the Reds’ 2025 closer, reportedly re-signed on a two-year deal.

A Look at Pagan

Last season was a big one for Emilio Pagan, who notched 32 saves and finished in the top-30 among relievers in wOBA (.254). It was the kind of season the Reds needed.

Cincinnati entered the 2025 campaign with questions regarding who was going to be the team’s closer. Alexis Diaz, who scuffled in 2024, had a bad spring and started the year on the IL. Pagan stepped up early and didn’t concede the closer’s role, forming a strong back-of-the-bullpen tandem with Tony Santillan.

The right-hander struck out 81 and ranked above-average in chases and whiffs. He also managed well in the well-hit contact department. Pagan conceded 10 home runs, eight of which came at home, last season. Generally speaking, the righty’s batted-ball profile leans heavily on the fly balls.

Emilio Pagan whiff heatmap 2025 — Lots of swing-and-miss up with the fastball, and down with the splitter.

Pagan, from a numbers standpoint, had an elite four-seamer. The 34-year-old’s four-seamer, which regularly sat in the 95-97 MPH, played up with plus extension and had a high amount of IVB (18.5”) and staying power up in the zone.

That, in of itself, is a dangerous combination to use against opposing hitters — in a good way. Overall, batters hit just .171 off the pitch. It also induced a lot of chases. Eighty-nine fastballs resulted in a chase, and 35 of those resulted in a chase swing-and-miss.

That 39.3% rate ranked 11th-best among Major League relievers, behind fellow elite fastball pitchers like Bryan Abreu, Jeremiah Estrada, as well as splitter/changeup heavy pitchers like Devin Williams and David Bednar.

Speaking of a splitter, Pagan’s main secondary offering was that pitch last season. It’s been a change of pace for Pagan, who generally used his cutter more often than the split. That wasn’t the case in 2025.

Emilio Pagan 2025 pitch movement — Look at the splitter.

Two seasons ago, Pagan’s splitter was about what would be expected from a movement profile. It broke straight down. In 2025, Pagan’s splitter had a different look, working more in the mold of the seam-shifted splitter that breaks to the glove side, rather than straight down.

Emilio Pagan 2024 pitch movement — Now look at it again.

It helped keep hitters at bay. Back in 2024, opposing batters posted a .300 SLG off the pitch. Last season? It was .207.

Per multiple reports, the Reds re-signed Emilio Pagan to a two-year deal worth $20MM. An opt-out after 2026 is also included.

Analysis

Pagan proved to be a valuable sign by the Reds two winters ago. Sure, the plan likely wasn’t for him to take over as closer. Nonetheless, the move worked very well.

The combination of Pagan and Santillan worked well. Both are very different pitchers and allowed Terry Francona to get through the late innings with reliable help. Heading into 2026, nothing should change on the front.

Cincinnati needed to add to the bullpen before next season, anyway. Scott Barlow and Brent Suter are not on the roster. The Reds had several pieces already in place, as Connor Phillips and Luis Mey are both controllable pitchers. Graham Ashcraft, who pitched well out of the bullpen after working as a starter, is also on the roster.

While the Reds should still look to add a lefty for the pen, Pagan coming back helps fill out the late-inning landscape.

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