What the Reds Bullpen Looks Like with Addition of Emilio Pagan

The Reds took one of the better relievers off the free agent market on November 29, when Emilio Pagan agreed to join Cincinnati on a two-year deal. Pagan was part of a stout Twins bullpen in 2023, and he’ll now join a solid Reds pen come 2024. Here’s a look at Pagan’s 2023 campaign, what he brings to the Reds, and a tentative look at Cincinnati’s bullpen for next season.

A Look at Pagan

Veteran reliever Emilio Pagan has jumped around in recent years. Since what could be considered his breakout campaign in 2019 — one that saw him strike out 96 over 70 innings and notch 20 saves for Tampa — Pagan spent two seasons with San Diego before he was dealt to Minnesota along with Chris Paddack for Taylor Rogers.

This past year was a strong one for Pagan, as the 32-year-old posted a 2.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and struck out 65 over 69.1 IP in what was a solid Twins bullpen that also included Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran.

Pagan’s pitch usage has changed slightly over the years. Much like he was with Tampa and San Diego, Pagan still relies heavily on the fastball and cutter. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and plays up due to his ability to extend out, and plays the cutter off it.

However, the biggest change has been how he’s picked up a split-change over the past two years. Pagan primarily used the splitter as an out pitch against lefties and it worked well for him. It’s a mid-80s pitch that differs greatly in speed from the fastball and breaks down hard on opposing hitters.

Last season, Pagan had a 41.4% Whiff% rate off the splitter.

Getting back to the fastball, Pagan’s batted-ball profile indicates that he’s a fly-ball pitcher. However, his deception, velocity, and tunneling of both the fastball and cutter gave him an edge — he’s been able to trip up a lot of hitters and prevent them from barreling up the baseball, particularly on fastballs over the heart of the plate.

Emilio Pagan pop up chart 2023 — Pagan’s fastball/cutter combo can mess with hitters’ eyesight and that benefited the ex-Twins reliever greatly. He got a lot of hitters uncomfortable in 2023.

Between a tough-to-pick-up delivery that involves a lot of moving parts, as well as weapons to get both lefties and righties out, it’s not hard to see why Pagan was in demand.

Pagan is yet another pitcher to leave the Twins via free agency this offseason. Just this past week, starters Sonny Gray (Cardinals) and Kenta Maeda (Tigers) found new homes.

Analysis

With Emilio Pagan reportedly signed to a two-year, $16MM deal, the Reds have now added to what was a strong bullpen overall last season.

Cincinnati’s bullpen ranked 16th in the Majors last season in ERA (4.11), although that high mark was negatively affected by problems in the month of September. For much of the year, their bullpen was rather reliable thanks to Alexis Diaz and some unheralded names.

Here’s an early look at what the Reds bullpen could look like come 2024:

RHP Tejay Antone
RHP Fernando Cruz
RHP Alexis Diaz
RHP Ian Gibaut
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Lucas Sims
LHP Sam Moll
LHP Alex Young

Diaz was one of the game’s dominant closers last season, while Ian Gibaut proved to be a rather reliable set-up man. Cruz, meanwhile, finished seventh in K/9 (13.4) last season among relievers with at least 40 innings thrown.

The Reds have an eclectic group of right-handers, coupled with two solid lefties in Sam Moll and Alex Young. Now, the attention turns to the Reds rotation for next season.