The Red Sox already added one significant starter this winter. Now, add another with Walker Buehler. The Red Sox are reportedly bringing in Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, months after the 30-year-old re-gained his footing in the league.
A Look at Buehler
Before 2024, Walker Buehler last threw an MLB pitch on June 10, 2022. After that game, Buehler was shut down and required UCL reconstruction surgery. Buehler didn’t return to a Major League mound until May 6, 2024 and the numbers — at least in the regular season — were not great.
Over 75.1 IP, Buehler struck out just 64 and ranked in the bottom 10th percent of the league in chase and whiff rates. While his Barrel% (68th percentile) was fine, Buehler struggled significantly with command and the ability to re-find his stuff.
Then in June, hip inflammation shut Buehler down. He spent two months on the IL and returned in August. His numbers in September (1.41 WHIP, 4.44 ERA) were better. But, not near what Buehler was before his elbow injury.
But once October hit, Buehler was a different pitcher — or at least similar to what the 30-year-old was pre-Tommy John. Buehler struck out 13 over 15 frames and gave up six earned runs, all of which came in the first inning of Game 3 in the NLDS against the Padres. After that inning, Buehler threw 14.1 scoreless frames.
One of the problems that was visible with Buehler was how the ex-Dodger was overthrowing. He had a hard time keeping himself together, and visually, Buehler looked to get locked up with his upper half. That became less of an issue as October rolled on.
Additionally, Buehler found the feel of his stuff yet again. The 30-year-old got significantly more movement on his stuff come playoff time.
Buehler averaged 16.6” of IVB on his four-seamer during the regular season. During the playoffs? 18.5”. His sweeper? How about 4.5” more horizontal movement.
Those numbers are more conducive for success, which Buehler had a lot of in his early years. The 30-year-old struck out over 200 batters twice (2019, 2021), thanks to an diverse arsenal that includes a four-seamer and sinker, plus cutter, sweeper, changeup, and a hard knuckle-curve.
After almost two full seasons on the IL recovering, Buehler got back into form right when the Dodgers needed him. Los Angeles didn’t have Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, or Clayton Kershaw this past postseason. Rather, the Dodgers had to rely on a three-man trio of Buehler, Jack Flaherty and a carefully-used Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Per reports, the Red Sox will sign Walker Buehler on a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.
Analysis
If Buehler looks more like the pitcher fans saw in October, this move can be a hit.
What had to impress not just the Red Sox but also other teams was that Buehler not only looked healthy, he pitched like himself. The 30-year-old had all of his pitches, was more controlled and poised, and had movement on his pitches not seen since 2021. That season, Buehler won 16 games and struck out 212 batters.
It’s a worthwhile gamble for the Sox, who lost Nick Pivetta this winter and have looked to bolster their rotation. Boston did that with the acquisition of Garrett Crochet. Now, the Sox have Buehler to a rotation that already tentatively includes Crochet, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello.
Lucas Giolito and Richard Fitts are among depth options should — and likely will — injuries arise.
For Buehler, the move offers him the chance to get back into form and produce strong numbers on a short-term deal. Then, head back into the free agent pool and look for a longer-term deal at 31 years of age.
The Red Sox can also benefit should Buehler succeed in 2025 and walk back to free agency. Los Angeles didn’t qualify Buehler after 2024, meaning Boston can in 2025.