What Should the Blue Jays Do This Winter?

The Blue Jays’ offseason has been a weird one to this point, thanks to the well-documented chase for a game-changer. Toronto was reportedly in on Shohei Ohtani, yet failed to reel in the two-way star. With Ohtani now out of the picture, what makes the most sense for the Jays this winter? After last season, some more firepower in the lineup should be the focus.

A Look at 2023

Last offseason, the Jays looked to change up their lineup after what was an impressive 2022 campaign on paper. Toronto ranked in the top five in both runs scored (775) and team OPS (.760) that season, but didn’t have too many left-handed hitters on hand.

To change that, the Blue Jays signed 1B Brandon Belt and defensive wizard Kevin Kiermaier, as well as made a major trade to acquire controllable outfielder Daulton Varsho from Arizona. The hope was that Varsho and Kiermaier could solidify Toronto’s outfield, while Belt could be a difference-maker and help set up the team’s big bats.

However, things didn’t go well for the Blue Jays in 2023.

Yes, Belt did come as advertised. The 35-year-old did miss time due to left hamstring inflammation and lumbar spine muscle spasms, but Belt did hit 19 home runs and 42 extra-base hits over 103 games and posted a very respectable .369 OBP. Kiermaier provided stellar defense and had arguably his most productive season offensively since 2017.

However, the Jays’ offense didn’t have the same juice in 2023. Toronto finished tied with Arizona for 14th in runs scored (746), 13th in SLG (.417), and 19th in Hard Hit% (38.9%).

There was some considerable regression that hit several of the key pieces of Toronto’s core. Matt Chapman had a torrid April, but ended 2023 with a career-low HR/PA (.029) before hitting the open market. George Springer had his third-consecutive 20+ home run campaign with the Jays but wound up a career-low .732 OPS.

Springer’s been known to be able to drive the baseball with authority. However, one interesting stat from 2023 was that his Barrel% went down last year. Part of that was inability to capitalize on driving fastballs, but he also popped up a fair amount on hittable sliders. Here’s a look at this Pop Up map from 2022. He popped up 6.5% of the time in 2022.
Now, juxtapose that with 2023. Notice two things. One, he just missed on sliders that were more over the plate. Second, he popped up more frequently in 2023 (6.6%) on those pitches last year. And per how Statcast quantifies a pop up, Springer was tied for the fourth-most off sliders in the second half.

Then, there was Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s bizarre 2023 season. The right-handed slugger cut down on his chases and whiffs and increased his BB% to an above-average 9.8%, but also got under on a significant number of pitchers and posted his worst OPS (.789) since 2019.

What stung even more for the Jays in 2023 was not just what Toronto received some of the team’s pieces, but also what two former players did outside of Ontario.

The Jays did lose a lot of firepower last winter, as both Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez were traded in the 2022-23 offseason. The two were steady contributors in Toronto and both did well in their new homes last year. Not to mention, both helped keep the wheel moving.

The Blue Jays’ Biggest Holes

The Jays saw several players from their 2023 roster head to market in November. Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier headed back to free agency after the expiration of their one-year deals, while Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield — both of whom rank in the top 15 of our hitter free agent rankings — also went to market.

Toronto could live without replacing Merrifield with an external option, as the Jays do have Cavan Biggio and Davis Schneider as options there.

The Blue Jays could also go internal to replace Chapman — a good power hitter and defender, but a streaky one at that — especially if Toronto believes power-hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez is ready for the Majors. Martinez’s hit tool borders on average, but the 22-year-old’s plus power could make him an MLB regular soon.

Should Toronto go internal for the infield, the Jays could then focus their attention on a third outfielder to join Varsho and Springer, as well as a power-hitting slugger to slot in as the DH. Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of internal options for either, so that would make the most sense.

Jorge Soler would be an interesting option for Toronto, as the veteran could moonlight in a corner outfield spot and provide some big pop for the Jays. He’s not the best defender. However, Soler has arguably the loudest power tool out of all the remaining free agents.

Then, there are the Cody Bellinger rumors. Toronto has been considered by some as the favorite for Bellinger, the former NL MVP who had a renaissance campaign with the Jays.

At the same token, the price is expected to be high for Bellinger — a report from the New York Post indicated that his camp is looking for a $200M+ deal.

There would be positives to adding Bellinger: the 28-year-old looked healthy in 2023, and the power-hitting outfielder can also play center field well. However, will the Jays bite for the price?