What to Expect from Orioles Pitcher Chayce McDermott

With one week before the Trade Deadline, the Orioles will promote top pitching prospect Chayce McDermott. The seventh-best prospect in the O’s system according to MLB.com, McDermott has been among the best strikeout pitchers at the Triple-A level this season. However, he’s dealt with command problems.

A Look at McDermott

The Orioles acquired Chayce McDermott, a 2021 fourth-round pick by Houston, almost two years before his MLB debut on August 2, 2022, in the Trey Mancini deal. McDermott started games in all three seasons he spent with Ball State but 2021 was his breakout campaign, as he struck out 125 over 82.2 IP.

McDermott missed plenty of bats in college and that’s remained the same in the Minors. The 25-year-old netted 160 strikeouts over 103.2 IP in his first full pro season in 2022, then added 152 to his ledger in 2023. This season with Norfolk (AAA), McDermott struck out 129 opposite 54 walks, over 91 innings with the Tides. That total is the most in the International League.

Chayce McDermott whiff 2024 — While McDermott’s fastball doesn’t have elite velocity, it does get plenty of swing-and-misses.

McDermott’s best pitch is a four-seam fastball in the 94-96 MPH range. It had a ridiculous 30.7% Whiff% rate in the Minors per Statcast tracking, thanks largely to good velocity that gets hitters to be late, coupled with high carry (18.1” IVB).

It’s not the only weapon McDermott has. He’ll work in a low-80s slider that picked up whiffs in Triple-A, as well as a slower curveball with a hard downward break that gets misses in and out of the zone. Additionally, he’ll use a cutter and changeup.

McDermott has the weapons to be an effective starter. However, command has been his biggest issue as a pro. The 25-year-old recorded BB/9 rates north of 5.0 from 2022-24 despite what is a relatively repeatable, high 3/4” delivery. That’s despite plus stuff.

The Orioles will promote Chayce McDermott to start on July 24, 2024, against the Marlins, per Brandon Hyde.

Analysis

Baltimore’s needed to dip into their reserves to log innings amidst season-ending injuries to John Means and Kyle Bradish. Lefty Cade Povich got time in the Majors this season and put up mixed results but bottomed out during two July starts before the All-Star break against the A’s and Yankees.

Povich struggled to get chases and whiffs in the Majors, as the lefty’s 23.0% Chase% and 20.4% Whiff% were in the sixth and 18th percentiles per Statcast. Povich’s low chase rate wasn’t exactly a surprise, given his tendencies to work in a slider and jam hitters with a cutter. However, the questionable command did Povich in.

The O’s will hope the same doesn’t happen with McDermott, although it’s very much a risk given his Minor League history. However, McDermott may not be long for the Baltimore rotation.

Baltimore’s rumored to be on pitchers, with Tarik Skubal being one named linked to the O’s. Skubal may be a long shot due to the Tigers’ control over the lefty through 2026. However, starters who are set to hit the market this winter, like Frankie Montas and Andrew Heaney, could be options to join Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.

Fantasy Outlook

McDermott will get a favorable matchup in his MLB debut against the Marlins, a team that loves to swing. However, the 25-year-old’s 2024 value is tied to whether he sticks in the O’s rotation beyond the Trade Deadline. Otherwise, he’s a spot-start option.