What to Make of Brewers' Re-Signing of Brandon Woodruff

With Spring Training in full swing, it’s decision time for several injured players. Former All-Star closer Liam Hendriks chose which team he’ll be rehabbing with and the same can be said for Brandon Woodruff. Brandon Woodruff is set to return to the Brewers, the same team that non-tendered him in November.

A Look at Woodruff

Over the last two seasons, the Brewers have had two of arguably the best 10-15 starters in the game in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff.

Over the last three seasons (min. 300 IP), Brandon Woodruff’s opponent’s OPS of .596 is second-best among starters, behind only Burnes. And in terms of K/9, Woodruff is 11th with a 10.7 K/9.

When he’s healthy, Woodruff is one of the best starters in the game. The 31-year-old can dice hitters up with a mid-90s four-seamer with plus carry (18.1” IVB) and a sinker he’s got good command of.

Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff whiff heat map 2023 — Brandon Woodruff’s whiff heat map from 2023. Take a look at how many misses he gets up in the zone. An elite changeup and fastball will help with getting misses in the zone, and not just outside of it.

Pair those two pitches with a nearly unhittable changeup (.098 opp. AVG in 2023) that differs in speed with the fastball by about 10 MPH and two breaking balls and Woodruff’s got at least four pitches that rate at least above average.

That stuff allowed Woodruff to net 211 strikeouts in 2021 and 190 over 153.1 IP a year later. However, health was not on his side in 2023.

Shoulder problems dogged Woodruff for most of 2023, which forced the righty to undergo surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder. He could miss all of 2024.

With Woodruff set to hit the free agent mark in 2024, the Brewers did try to trade him before the non-tender deadline in November. However, that didn’t come to fruition and Woodruff was ultimately non-tendered. Fast forward three months later, and he’s back in Milwaukee.

Per reports, Brandon Woodruff will return to the Brewers on a two-year deal (terms unknown). We rated Woodruff as the ninth-best starter available in free agency.

Analysis

One could look at this as a marriage of convenience. After all, Woodruff does return to a Brewers team — and a medical staff — that’s he very familiar with.

And if past contracts recently given out to injured players who missed a full year — Tyler Mahle and Rhys Hoskins are examples, although the latter is not a pitcher — are indications, Woodruff would likely have not gotten a significant contract had he sat out a year and then opted to sign. Or, at least what Woodruff likely would have commanded had he been healthy and entered the market.

Instead, Woodruff will get paid to rehab in 2024 and look to return for a Brewers team that could certainly use his services in 2025.

Now, that could be said for a lot of teams. Woodruff, as noted, is an impressive pitcher when he’s healthy. But with Burnes now a member of the Orioles, the move does allow Milwaukee to take advantage of Woodruff’s services for at least one more season in 2025.

Then, the Brewers figure to still have Freddy Peralta — who has $8MM club options in 2025-26 — and potentially a couple of young pitchers in Robert Gasser, Jacob Misiorowski, and Carlos F. Rodriguez in their rotation. With the Brewers’ young crop of players and Woodruff back in tow, things will be interesting come 2025.