Well, here we go again. After a rousing four-game NLDS last October, the Braves and Phillies are set for round two in 2023. The last two National League pennant winners will meet yet again this October, with a spot in the National League Championship Series on the line. Here’s our preview of the NLDS between the Phillies and Braves.
Related: 2023 ALDS: Twins vs. Astros – Preview, predictions, more
Probable Starters and Start Times
- Game 1: Ranger Suarez vs. Spencer Strider (6:07 PM ET)
- Game 2: Zack Wheeler vs. Max Fried (6:07 PM ET)
- Game 3: TBD vs. Aaron Nola (5:07 PM ET)
- Game 4: TBD vs. TBD (6:07 PM ET)
- Game 5: TBD vs. TBD (6:07 PM ET)
Odds
- Phillies: +145
- Braves: -175
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. As of October 6, 2023.
A Look at the Offenses
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 796 | 946 |
| Home Runs | 220 | 307 |
| OPS | .765 | .845 |
| Whiff% | 27.2% | 25.4% |
| Hard Hit% | 40.7% | 46.0% |
The Phillies’ bats fired on all cylinders during the Wild Card round. Philadelphia scored eleven runs against the Marlins in what wasn’t much of a competitive series. And, the stars for the Phillies showed up. Trea Turner hit .571, J.T. Realmuto came up with some big hits, and 2B Bryson Stott belted a grand slam in what was the exclamation point on the Phillies’ series against the Marlins.
Atlanta, meanwhile, will now look to translate their regular season success into postseason success. The Braves scored a league-high 946 runs in the regular season and tormented opposing teams thanks to NL MVP candidates Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr.
But those aren’t the only two to be worried about from the Phillies’ standpoint. In fact, arguably the best hitter on the Braves — and maybe all of MLB, for that matter — in the second half was Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna hit .301/.373/.647 with 23 home runs and 45 extra-base hits, the latter of which led the Majors in the second half.
Third baseman Austin Riley also dominated in the second half, as he belted 40 extra-base hits and 21 home runs from July 14 onward.
Believe it or not, though, there are some question marks surrounding the Braves. One, can the Braves avoid repeating what happened in the NLDS last year, when the bats went cold in the last two games of the series? Second, can the Braves get production from Sean Murphy? Murphy rolled in the first half but hit just .159 and posted a meager .585 OPS after the All-Star break.
A Look at the Pitching
| | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.30 | 4.36 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.56 | 3.81 |
| Strikeouts | 1,454 | 1,516 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .240 | .245 |
| Chase% | 30.8% | 29.7% |
If the Phillies are to win this series, Philadelphia will need to rely on their pitching to lead the way, much like the Phillies’ troupe of arms did last year. The Phillies held the Braves to 13 runs in the four games these two teams played in last year’s NLDS and just four once the series moved to Pennsylvania.
Both Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola did their job in the Wild Card round, as did the relievers. Philadelphia gave up just two runs against a chase-heavy Marlins lineup that didn’t match up too well against the Phillies. Now, Ranger Suarez, Wheeler, Nola, and the Phillies bullpen will face a Braves lineup that posted the eighth-highest Chase% (30.0%) in all of baseball.
As for the Braves, Atlanta will face a Phillies lineup that chased 31.3% of the time in the regular season, fourth-most. But with an army of power hitters in the Phillies lineup, Atlanta’s pitching staff will have their hands full.
The Braves pitching staff ranked among the league’s best strikeouts, not much of a shock given that their ace Spencer Strider struck out 281 batters over 186.2 IP. Strider won 20 games for the Braves this past season, but it wasn’t pretty at times. While the right-hander can blow away hitters with his fastball and slider, Strider owned a 4.39 ERA in the second half.
It’ll be interesting to see whether the righty, who gave up five earned runs in his lone playoff start last year, will use his changeup more. The change proved to be a real weapon this year, but it’s been a pitch that Strider will only break out in certain situations.
The Braves likely won’t have Charlie Morton on their NLDS roster thanks to a right index finger ligament strain, but the Braves do have Max Fried back and a deep bullpen that includes Joe Jimenez, Kirby Yates, Brad Hand, and closer Raisel Iglesias. And, don’t sleep on Pierce Johnson. Johnson owned a 0.96 ERA over 28 IP and 39 strikeouts in the second half. That ERA ranked as the seventh-best among relievers in that span (min. 20 GP).
Our Predictions
This will be a tight series, regardless of who comes out on top. Despite the disparity of games won between these two teams in the regular season, the Phillies have the experience and talent to beat the Braves — and Philadelphia proved that last fall.
Nonetheless, we believe that the Braves, who won it all two years ago, will be better prepared for this series. We’ll take the Braves to move on.