It’s officially playoff season. The 2024 AL Wild Card Round will start with the Tigers and Astros, two teams who came back from major deficits but are also very different. Houston is a juggernaut and will play in the AL Wild Card Round for the first time after the Astros secured first-round byes in 2022 and 2023. Detroit, meanwhile, will play in the MLB Postseason for the first time in a decade. Here’s a closer look at the series and how Detroit and Houston match up with one another.
Scheduled Starters and Start Times
- Game 1: Tarik Skubal (Tigers) vs. Framber Valdez (Astros)
- Game 2: TBA vs. TBD
- Game 3: TBA vs. TBA
All games will air at 2:32 PM ET on ABC. However, that could change depending on the other Wild Card series.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 682 | 740 |
| Home Runs | 162 | 190 |
| OPS | .685 | .741 |
| Whiff% | 25.9% | 23.5% |
| Hard Hit% | 38.0% | 38.9% |
The Astros have a clear advantage at the plate. Seven of Houston’s nine starters posted an above-average OPS+, including Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
Alvarez is on the postseason roster, as his spot was in question given the slugger was dealing with a knee injury. And for Tucker, the 27-year-old batted .365/.453/.587 with four home runs and six extra-base hits after returning from the IL on September 6.
Houston’s depth in their lineup is a stark contrast from what Detroit has. The Tigers had four regulars (min. 81 GP) with an above-average OPS+: Riley Greene (133), Parker Meadows (109), Matt Vierling (107), and platoon bat Kerry Carpenter (159). Carpenter won’t be in the lineup for Game 1 against a left-handed pitcher.
While the Tigers don’t have the depth the Astros have, one thing Detroit can do is make something out of nothing. Even though Tigers hitters sported the league’s second-lowest OBP (.300), there are players in this lineup, like Meadows and Vierling, who can impact the game with their bat and legs.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.69 | 3.81 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.55 | 3.66 |
| Strikeouts | 1,354 | 1,479 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .233 | .231 |
| Chase% | 29.9% | 28.1% |
If the Tigers want to beat the Astros, Detroit will have to do it with pitching. Detroit pitchers had the league’s fourth-best Chase% rate, interesting given Houston batters posted the third-worst Chase% (31.8%) in the league. But can Tigers pitchers get the ‘Stros to swing at bad pitches in the playoffs?
It’ll start with likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, who will have the enviable task of doing that in Game 1. Skubal posted a terrific Whiff% (31.9%), thanks in large part to his fastball and changeup that will get plenty of work against Houston’s right-handed hitters.
However, Skubal will also need to have success against a Houston team that hit him well in the regular season. Astros hitters posted a .749 opponent’s OPS against Skubal in 2024, as well as a 4.26 ERA in two outings,
Aside from Skubal, watch the Tigers’ bullpen. Detroit relievers owned the fifth-best ERA (3.55), as the Tigers have several weapons. Tyler Holton was a Swiss Army knife for the Tigers bullpen, and top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe — who made his MLB debut in late September — is also on the roster.
Houston’s pitching staff will be led by Framber Valdez, who will look to shake off his bad omens from 2023. Valdez is part of a strong Astros pitching staff that now has Josh Hader out of the pen.
However, one subplot for this series is Justin Verlander, who starred with the Tigers before winning two World Series with Houston, who is not on the AL Wild Card roster.
Our Prediction
We predicted the Astros would win the World Series in March and right now, one would have to think Houston is a strong candidate to do so. Houston will have Alvarez available for the playoffs and their rotation is deep enough to do so.
But before then, the Astros have to get through Tarik Skubal and the Astros. Houston won’t have it easy in Game 1 but the ‘Stros did have success against him in the regular season.
We’ll go with the Astros, who have the depth advantage.