One could argue the Royals and Orioles will be tied for years to come. Five years ago, the Orioles and Royals were in deep rebuilds and picked 1-2 in the 2019 MLB Draft. Both franchises took superstars in Adley Rutschman (Orioles) and Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) and kickstarted their rise back up the AL food chain. Now, they’ll meet with their respective organizations in the 2024 AL Wild Card Round. Here’s a closer look at the series.
Scheduled Starters and Start Times
- Game 1: Cole Ragans (Royals) vs. Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Game 2: Seth Lugo (Royals) vs. TBD
- Game 3: Michael Wacha (Royals) vs. TBA
Games 1 & 3 (3 if necessary) will air at 4:08 PM ET. Game 2 is scheduled for 4:38 ET. Game 1 is on ESPN2, while 2 &3 are scheduled for ESPN.
However, that could change depending on the other Wild Card series.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 735 | 786 |
| Home Runs | 170 | 235 |
| OPS | .710 | .751 |
| Whiff% | 22.8% | 24.3% |
| Hard Hit% | 40.5% | 42.4% |
Despite a down year from Adley Rutschman, the Orioles remained one of the game’s premier offenses, a year after Baltimore finished seventh in runs scored (807).
Nine O’s recorded double-digits in home runs, including Gunnar Henderson (37) and Anthony Santander (44). But besides those two, the Orioles have other names who can do damage. Colton Cowser blasted 24 home runs in his rookie, while ex-Royal Ryan O’Hearn got hot over the final week after a cold September. Baltimore also has a healthy Jordan Westburg.
As we noted last month, the Royals‘ lineup contrasts starkly with the O’s. While Kansas City has one of the game’s most dynamic players in Bobby Witt Jr. and slugger Salvador Perez, the Royals’ depth aside from those two lagged. It’s why despite those two, the Royals finished with a .710 OPS, 14th-best in the league.
The good news for the Royals, though, is that Vinnie Pasquantino is back for the AL Wild Card series.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.55 | 3.77 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 4.13 | 4.22 |
| Strikeouts | 1,339 | 1,380 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .241 | .238 |
| Chase% | 27.2% | 28.4% |
Kansas City starters owned the second-best team ERA (3.55), behind only the Mariners. The Royals’ playoff rotation is a near-perfect mix of different looks.
Ragans finished second in the AL in strikeouts and can gas hitters with his mid-90s fastball, or get them way out in front with a changeup that had a 47.8% Whiff% rate this season. Michael Wacha won’t throw hard but does have a high-carry fastball, along with junk and a great changeup. Then, there’s Seth Lugo, who can throw everything at hitters, including a buckling curveball and slider.
Kansas City’s bullpen isn’t elite but their late-inning situation got better with the addition of Lucas Erceg.
Baltimore, meanwhile, has a good rotation despite taking major hits via injuries. Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish are on the shelf, leaving Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin to shoulder the load.
Burnes has been one of the game’s elite strikeout pitchers over the past four years and could cash in on that in free agency this winter. Eflin, on the other hand, can punish right-handed hitters with his sinker, which allows him to pound the zone and get ground balls.
Our Prediction
Neither team comes in particularly hot heading into the AL Wild Card Round.
The Orioles haven’t played their best baseball over the last two months. Even though the O’s won 91 games in 2024, Baltimore went 26-27 over from August 1 onward, not exactly befitting of a playoff team. The Royals, on the other hand, also went 26-27 over the last two months.
This series will come down to this: can the O’s hitters beat the Royals’ pitching? We think the Orioles will get just enough to win this series and meet up with the Yankees.