Heading into 2024, the Reds looked primed to become playoff contenders. The Reds won 82 games in 2023 with a young core and were highly active last winter, which set Cincinnati up to potentially blow past the Brewers and the rest of the NL Central. That, however, did not happen. The Reds, besieged by injuries, won 77 games and missed the playoffs for the fourth straight year. Here’s our 2024 Reds recap.
The Offense
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 699 | 16th |
| Home Runs | 174 | 19th |
| OPS | .693 | 21st |
| Whiff% | 26.4% | 22nd |
| Hard Hit% | 35.9% | 28th |
The Pitching
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.09 | 16th |
| Relievers’ ERA | 4.09 | 18th |
| Strikeouts | 1,370 | 16th |
| Whiff% | 25.1% | 18th |
| Chase% | 28.5% | 15th |
The Good
There’s not much to be said about the freakish nature of Elly De La Cruz‘s talents.
De La Cruz exploded onto the scene last season in the Majors and electrified — but also struggled in the second half. The 22-year-old came into 2024 with all the tools — plus bat speed, plus foot speed — but questions whether swing-and-misses would do him in. It didn’t.
Yes, Elly De La Cruz struck out a lot. He went down on strikes 218 times, most in Major League Baseball. However, his plus power was too much for pitchers to handle. De La Cruz hit 25 home runs, 10 triples, and posted a .809 OPS.
And when he got on base, he wasn’t afraid to steal a base — or two. De La Cruz led the Majors in stolen bases (67).
The 6’5” shortstop also wasn’t a liability on the field. De La Cruz’s +15 Outs Above Average was fourth-best among shortstops.
Aside from Elly De La Cruz, there weren’t many positives from their offense, which will be touched on later. However, the Reds were able to get 92 RBI from Spencer Steer, while Tyler Stephenson had arguably his best MLB season. Stephenson hit 19 home runs last season, a career high, and a 112 OPS+.
As for the Reds’ pitching staff, Cincinnati received a career season from Hunter Greene. Greene struck out 169 over 150.1 IP, posted a shiny 2.75 ERA, and finished eighth in the NL Cy Young voting.
Greene has long been known for being a flamethrower but has had problems putting it all together. Part of that has been because of health. However, one issue Greene dealt with was fine-tuning his arsenal to work against MLB hitters. Greene had the fastball and slider but needed a third pitch. He found one, as Greene — much like others — swapped out his changeup for a splitter.
The split, a high-80s offering that can break hard downward, gave him that much-needed third offering to keep hitters off balance. What was the result? Not as many whiffs. But, hitters batted less than .200 off both his slider and fastball. Not to mention, he finished in the top 15% in Barrel% and Hard Hit%.
Rhett Lowder also had a strong debut, which I’ll get to in a couple of sections.
The Bad
At the start of 2024, the Reds came into the season with what was considered a surplus of infielders. That changed rather quickly.
Right away, the Reds lost Noelvi Marte to a PED suspension, while Matt McLain underwent shoulder surgery in March after injuring himself in the spring. McLain didn’t play a game in the 2024 campaign, although he did get in some at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.
McLain wasn’t the only notable injury on the the Reds’ roster last year. Injuries were the name of the game for the Reds in 2024. Christian Encarnacion-Strand had wrist surgery that ended his season after 29 games. TJ Friedl broke his wrist in the spring, broke a thumb, and suffered a hamstring strain all in a matter of months.
Those losses took a toll on the Reds, who finished fifth-worst in Barrel% (7.0%) and dipped to the bottom half of the league in many offesnsive categories. The Reds scored 84 fewer runs compared to 2023.
The injuries also weren’t limited to their lineup. Brandon Williamson didn’t pitch in a MLB game until September, while Graham Ashcraft (elbow) and Nick Lodolo (calf, groin, and finger) all missed time. It led the Reds to get creative at times with their rotation, as Cincinatti used the likes of Julian Aguiar and Carson Spiers to kill innings. Unfortunately, those two had ERAs above 5.00.
Aside from all the injuries, some of the Reds’ veterans weren’t as productive compared to past season.
Take, for example, closer Alexis Diaz. Diaz handicapped hitters in 2023 thanks to a sneaky fastball that plays up significantly thanks to his arm angle and extension and a nearly unhittable slider. However, hitters weren’t biting on Diaz’s stuff as much last season, particularly during the first half. Which, led to 22 walks over 35.1 IP and slightly more chaos during the late stages of games.
Veteran third baseman Jeimer Candelario hit 20 home runs in his first season with the Reds. But before a toe injury ended his season early, Candelario’s second half of 2024 looked a lot like his 2023 second half. He hit just .173/.216/.327 over 27 games.
Early Projected Lineup for 2025
- C: Tyler Stephenson
- 1B: Christian Encarnacion-Strand
- 2B: Matt McLain
- 3B: Noelvi Marte
- SS: Elly De La Cruz
- OF: Spencer Steer (LF), TJ Friedl (CF), Jake Fraley (RF)
- DH: Jeimer Candelario
- SP: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, Rhett Lowder
- RP: Alexis Diaz, Fernando Cruz, Emilio Pagan, Sam Moll, Brent Suter, Nick Martinez, Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar
The Reds will have a new manager in 2025, as Terry Francona will take over in Cincinnati. And, he’ll hope the Reds’ bats can stay healthy for 2025.
Cincinnati will have one fewer bat on their roster, as Jonathan India was traded for Royals starter Brady Singer. Singer comes over after strong campaigns in 2022 and 2024, and is known for being a strike-thrower who can get whiffs with his slider.
Singer will join a rotation with question marks, particular with health. But luckily, the Reds have options. Nick Martinez is back after he took his qualifying offer and Cincinatti also saw Rhett Lowder dominate in September. The 2023 first-round owned the seventh-lowest ERA (1.01) in the Majors in September (min. 15 IP) after his promotion, while Martinez was fourth (0.83).