With September near, anticipate several top prospects to receive their first looks at MLB action. Cincinnati is set to do that with one of the best pitching prospects but two days early. The Reds will reportedly call up pitcher Rhett Lowder, the team’s 2023 first-round pick, for his debut on August 30 during a doubleheader with the Brewers.
A Look at Lowder
Former Wake Forest star Rhett Lowder became the latest piece of the Reds’ rebuild last July when Cincinnati took him eighth overall. It came after a standout college career, one that saw him strike out 326 batters over 287.1 IP innings with the Demon Deacons. In his junior season, Lowder struck out 143 over 120 frames and owned a BB/9 rate below 2.0.
The Reds took things slowly with Lowder, as he didn’t pitch after the MLB Draft last season. He hit a skid in May — he gave up 19 runs over 21.1 IP that month — but has been good overall across three levels. Lowder struck out 113 batters over 108.2 IP. He posted a 3.64 ERA (1.15 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9).
Lowder made one start in Triple-A after the righty was promoted to Louisville on August 20. The 22-year-old struck out seven over six scoreless innings.
Thanks to his lone start in Triple-A, Statcast data is available from his recent start with Louisville. He didn’t net a high Whiff% rate (23.2%) on the 22nd with the Bats but was unpredictable. Roughly half (11 of 21) of his first pitches were either sinkers or four-seamers, a good sign of a pitcher who can work backwards; necessary to make the jump to MLB. He showcased a mid-90s four-seamer and sinker, to go along with a power slider that’s arguably his best pitch. He’ll also work with a changeup that should play well with the sinker at the MLB level.
Opposing batters hit .243 off Lowder in the Minors, which is not a shock given how much he leverages the sinker. Still, that should be offset with higher ground ball totals in a hitter-friendly stadium.
Lowder will become the seventh player from the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft to make it to the Majors and fifth from the top 10. He’ll join Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, and Jacob Wilson. Per reports, Rhett Lowder will be called up on August 30th to pitch the second game of a doubleheader against the Brewers.
Analysis
Given how polished he came out of Wake Forest — who first-round pick Chase Burns pitched for in 2024 — it’s not a shock to see Lowder up fast. And, his start on the 30th will serve as a tryout of sorts.
The Reds’ rotation has been decimated by injuries. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott are all on the IL. However, all three are likely locks for the team’s 2025 rotation, assuming they’re healthy and available. Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers are potential candidates for the back half next season. However, a good going here can give the Reds an indication of what they have heading into a pivotal offseason.
Fantasy Outlook
Lowder should be of great benefit for the Reds from a long-term perspective. Still, it’s hard to gauge what kind of pitcher he’ll be in the short term. He netted a 23.2% Whiff% rate in his lone Triple-A start — albeit a small sample size. And, his stuff does imply he’ll be more of a pitch-to-contact arm than swing-and-miss.
Don’t jump in on Lowder just yet. Although, the 22-year-old will be a fantasy player — in both traditional and dynasty — for years to come.