The Blue Jays missed the playoffs this past season in what was Toronto’s poorest year since 2019. Toronto won 74 games. However, there were some positives despite a season filled with injuries. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returned to form and Toronto saw the rise of a right-hander who domniated over the summer months. Here’s our 2024 recap of the Toronto Blue Jays’ season.
The Offense
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 671 | 23rd |
| Home Runs | 156 | 26th |
| OPS | .703 | 18th |
| Whiff% | 22.6 | 4th |
| Hard Hit% | 37.0 | 22nd |
The Pitching
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.95 | 14th |
| Relievers’ ERA | 4.82 | 29th |
| Strikeouts | 1,314 | 24th |
| Whiff% | 23.6% | 29th |
| Chase% | 28.1% | 20th |
The Good
What a rebound season it was for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero Jr. finished 2024 fifth in the American League in OPS (.940), as he hit the 30-home run marker for the first time since 2022. His 199 hits last year was a career-high. It was a year where he squared up the ball significantly better, all while displaying tremendous bat speed (95th percentile). Plain and simple, he carried the Jays’ offense.
Guerrero Jr. was joined by Spencer Horwitz, who played first and second this season for the Jays after a 15-game cameo in 2023. Horwitz has a short, sweet swing and was superb in making contact. He also added 12 home runs for Toronto this past season.
The Jays’ rotation was also a bright spot. Kevin Gausman recorded his lowest K/9 (8.1) rate since 2018, a season that saw him have less velocity but also worked a sinker into his arsenal. Still, his 3.77 FIP was strong. Jose Berrios, meanwhile, logged 192.1 IP — his highest since 2019 — and was arguably Toronto’s most reliable starter.
However, possibly the best story out of the Jays’ pitching staff was Bowden Francis. Francis, acquired from the Brewers three years ago for Rowdy Tellez, was excellent in the second half. His 1.80 ERA in the second half was second-best in the Majors (min. 50 IP), behind only Blake Snell.
Francis’ success can largely be attributed to a split-finger he made liberal use of in 2024. It’s a pitch that’s given many, including bandmate Kevin Gausman, success over the year and has been en vogue among pitchers. The shape of Francis’ splitter is different than Gausman: the former’s split has less run than the latter. But, it has hard drop and makes his fastball deadly.
Opposing batters hit .174 (.263 wOBA) off the four-seamer last season.
The Bad
Yet again, the Blue Jays’ run production lagged. Two seasons ago, Toronto finished fourth in the league in runs scored (772). That number felt to 746 in 2023, tied with Arizona for 14th. The Blue Jays finished the 2024 season with 671 runs scored, 23rd in the Majors.
Toronto went from a deep lineup full of the depth, which included OF Teoscar Hernandez and 3B Matt Chapman two years ago, to one that suffered with lack of it.
Bo Bichette played half of the season thanks to calf troubles and a fractured right middle finger. When he was healthy, Bichette hit .225/.277/.322 (.598 OPS), easily the worst OPS of his career. George Springer hit 19 home runs but his slugging percentage (.371) continued its steady drop. Compare that number to 2021 when Springer had a .555 SLG.
Alejandro Kirk (.677 OPS) has yet to replicate his strong 2022 campaign, when he hit 14 home runs and was an All-Star. It’s a tough hit for a Jays team that traded prospect Gabriel Moreno, in part, because the Jays believed to have depth at the catcher position for years to come.
Those three names were a microcosm of the Jays’ offense in 2024. Toronto had four regulars with an OPS+ of 100 or greater, two of whom were traded midseason. Justin Turner was shipped to Seattle at the deadline, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa was dealt to Pittsburgh after a productive year (.758 OPS, 7 HR, 17 XBH) in Canada.
Pitching-wise, Chris Bassitt had a fine, overall season in 2024. However, his second half wasn’t great (5.23 ERA, 1.51 WHIP), as opposing batters had a .838 OPS, over 100 points higher than the first.
Alek Manoah came back after a rough 2023 campaign and hummed. His velocity was up and his strikeout rate jumped six percent. The problem? Season-ending elbow surgery after five starts that ended his season and recovery that will bleed into 2025.
Another pitcher who had trouble in was Erik Swanson. Swanson struggled with forearm inflammation and also a personal issue, which delayed his season start. He struggled through the early parts of the season but improved after a callup from Buffalo (AAA). Swanson wasn’t the only reliever who dealt with injuries, as Jordan Romano only made 15 appearances thanks to elbow troubles.
With Romano and Swanson’s issues in 2024, it shouldn’t be a shock to hear that the Jays’ bullpen had problems. Toronto’s relievers finished 29th in the league in ERA, behind only the Rockies. Their Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) was fourth-worst (4.14), not much better.
Toronto’s late-inning work was captained by Chad Green and Genesis Cabrera, the latter of whom was not retained for 2025. Cabrera can throw hard but his command (4.2 BB/9) isn’t great.
Early Projected Lineup for 2025
- C: Alejandro Kirk
- 1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- 2B: Spencer Horwitz
- 3B: Ernie Clement
- SS: Bo Bichette
- OF: Joey Loperfido (LF), Daulton Varsho (CF), George Springer (RF)
- DH: Orelvis Martinez
- SP: Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, Jose Berrios, Yariel Rodriguez
- RP: Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Ryan Burr, Brendon Little, Zach Pop, Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson
The good news, at least for now, in Toronto is that Blue Jays management believes their team won’t be subject to a luxury tax penalty after shedding payroll — midseason trades of Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justin Turner — in the summer. That would mean more financial flexibility, in theory.
Managment reportedly has a desire to add a starting pitcher for 2025. The Jays have a strong top-four, assuming Berrios pitches like he did in 2024, and the same goes for Francis. And, there have been rumors Toronto would be interested in Juan Soto.
Aside from that, eyes will be on whether the Jays extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Bo Bichette. Both become free agents after next season. Should either leave, it would mean a significant hole in Toronto’s lineup. Bichette, when healthy, is one of the game’s best contact hitters. Guerrero, meanwhile, is a premier hitter with plus power.
In sum, this is a pivotal offseason for the Blue Jays. Toronto needs to stay competitive in the tough AL East, while also trying to keep their two homegrown stars in town for the long haul.