Last year saw the rise of many top starting pitchers, from Paul Skenes in the National League, to Tanner Houck & Cole Ragans in the American League. So, who are names who have significant potential heading into 2025? Here’s five names to hone in on, starting with a talented second-year arm from Houston.
Spencer Arrighetti
It’s somewhat hard to consider Spencer Arrighetti a breakout pitcher candidate. The Astros promoted Arrighetti in April 2024 after a strong track record of accumulating strikeouts in the Minors. That record held true in the Majors, and after early-career struggled, thrived over the second half. The right-hander posted a 3.18 ERA and 78 strikeouts (20th in MLB) over 65 second-half innings.
Arrighetti is incredible deceptive, thanks to a low arm slot and plus extension that allows him to get more out of the mid-90s pitch. But aside from that offering, the Astros right-hander has a sharp curveball and splitter, two pitches that netted him sub-.200 averages last season.
On our initial fantasy baseball rankings list, we had Arrighetti listed as the 81st-best player available. It’s an aggressive ranking, given his walk numbers last season. But, there’s room for growth. Arrighetti was an above-average strike-thrower and with his deception, could see a jump in chase numbers at some point.
Shane Baz
Is this finally the year for Shane Baz? The 25-year-old missed all of 2023 and most of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made 14 starts during the back half of the 2024 season.
The Rays right-hander did well for himself, as he posted a 3.06 ERA over 79.1 IP. Out of the 91 pitchers who threw 70+ IP from July 1 onward, that figure ranked 24th. Baz has a solid four-pitch mix, highlighted by a hard fastball, deep-diving curveball, slider, and changeup. That mix served him well, particularly in September. Baz threw 6+ innings in four of his five September starts.
Baz posted above-average Zone% numbers in each of his first three seasons, meaning he pounds the zone a lot. His stuff is good enough to do that, so long as he keeps the rising fastball in the upper quadrants (he’s done this efficiently). It’ll lead to muted chase numbers and possibly, fewer strikeouts. That doesn’t mean he’s not worth a look.
David Festa
Three second-year pitchers are featured on this list, with one of them being David Festa. The Twins right-hander went from raw college pitcher with upside to legitimate Major League talent, as Festa struck out 77 over 64.1 IP. However, Festa also gave up a lot of hard contact (8.6% Barrel%), as his fastball and changeup often got too much of the plate.
From a pitch profile standpoint, Festa is a good strikeout option. The 24-year-old showcased a mid-90s fastball with elite IVB (19.3” average) in St. Paul. That number was down (18.0”) in the Majors — but still very good. He’ll pair that rising fastball with an aforementioned changeup with roughly a six MPH differential, and a slider with above-average depth.
As I stated when Festa was promoted last season, the right-hander throws his arms and legs at hitters. Command consistency will be the key with the right-hander, as Festa’s prone to making mistakes both in and out of the zone. But, the stuff is tantalizing.
Ryan Pepiot
The Rays acquired SP Ryan Pepiot over a year ago in the Tyler Glasnow trade, giving Tampa a young, controllable arm with upside. Pepiot showcased that upside in 2024.
The 27-year-old struck out 142 over 130 frames last season, and posted a strong 29.9% Whiff%. As I noted in our Rays season recap article, Pepiot likely would have put up better numbers had he not dealt with a freak IL stint after a spider bite, plus a leg contusion. Speaking of bite, Pepiot’s four-seamer has plenty of it, thanks to plus induced movement and extension.
Pepiot’s changeup consistently received rave reviews, dating back to his days at Butler University. But Pepiot also has a cutter, slider, and curveball, with the slider also being an above-average pitch. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could improve off solid 2024 numbers.
Cade Povich
For those looking for a deep — and I mean, deep — Cade Povich is a name to watch. Those who’ve read our past content would know, as I consistently listed him as a sleeper name last season. The Orioles left-hander put up eye-popping numbers in the Minors thanks to a sneaky fastball and secondary stuff. And last September, Povich (2.60 ERA, 32 K over 27.2 IP) delivered.
Povich is one of those names who will likely be available at the very end of drafts. Given the Orioles’ depth chart, it’s not even certain whether he’ll make the team out of camp. Right now, the O’s currently have a tentative rotation of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, & Tomoyuki Sugano.
But injuries happen and Povich will likely get a shot at some point — especially with how well he’s pitched in camp. The left-hander struck out seven over five scoreless to begin the spring.
Make sure to look at our lists of the best impact rookie hitters and pitchers.