The Giants added another former Cy Young Award winner to their pitching staff on March 18. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is off the board, as the lefty will stay in the NL West and join Logan Webb and the Giants. The deal ends Snell’s saga in free agency after a strong, yet complicated 2023 campaign.
A Look at Snell
From a raw stuff standpoint, new Giants pitcher Blake Snell is one of the league’s most impressive pitchers.
Snell boasts a plus mid-90s fastball with well-above-average carry (18.8” of IVB in 2023) and plays up thanks to above-average extension. The 31-year-old pairs with it a changeup that plays very well off the fastball, along with two breaking balls — a hard curveball and slider — that netted Snell a ton of misses last season.
Snell’s curveball and slider both had Whiff% rates north of 50% in 2023, the former of which was the 31-year-old’s primary out pitch. And in terms of getting misses out of the zone, Snell was nearly unmatched in 2023. His 310 whiffs out of the zone were second-most in the Majors last year, behind only Spencer Strider (336).
On those merits alone, one would think that the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner could have cashed in after last year. However, walks were a major problem for Snell last season.
Snell led MLB in total walks (99) last season and his BB% of 13.5% ranked in the fourth percentile. The 31-year-old didn’t miss in the zone much but often threw too many non-competitive pitches and got himself in trouble at times. He did, though, pitch himself out of it often.
Per multiple reports, the Giants and Blake Snell agreed on a two-year deal worth $62MM. Snell will have an opt-out for 2025 and receive a $15MM salary for 2024, along with a $17MM bonus that won’t get paid until 2026.
Analysis
There were likely several factors at play, regarding why Snell didn’t get a long-term deal. One was the walks but another was that Snell may be primed for regression after a dominant 2023.
Snell posted the highest LOB% (86.7%) in the Majors last season among qualified pitchers and it wasn’t particularly close. Gerrit Cole finished behind him at 80.4%. Add that with the command issues and sprinkle in Snell’s results from 2020-22 — a period that saw him post an 11.9 K/9 but middling batted ball metrics — and it’s academic from there.
Still, Snell had arguably the best pure stuff out of any available free agent this winter. The Giants benefit from that, as San Francisco looks to stay competitive in a tight NL West.
The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Padres all boast strong teams and all three can say they’ve improved this winter. Los Angeles added Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, Arizona added Eduardo Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez, and San Diego recently added pitcher Dylan Cease.
With Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray on the IL, Snell will be needed as soon as he’s available.