Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander will continue his MLB career with the San Francisco Giants. Multiple reports indicated the Giants will sign Verlander to a one-year deal, months after the 41-year-old ended a tumultuous 2024 campaign.
A Look at Verlander
Just from looking at non-advanced numbers, one could clearly see 2024 wasn’t a good one for Justin Verlander. Verlander, who will be 42 in February, owned a 5.48 ERA over 90.1 IP, the highest of his lengthy MLB career. Among starters with 90+ IP thrown in 2024, he finished with the seventh-worst ERA.
His 7.4 K/9 was the lowest of Verlander’s career since 2014.
Verlander never got on solid footing in 2024. The 41-year-old started last season on the IL with right shoulder inflammation, then dealt with neck discomfort in the summer. He missed two months before returning in late August.
However, Verlander was quite productive over the first few months of the season. Over his first eight outings of the year, Verlander owned a 3.26 ERA (4.59 FIP), with opposing batters having a .672 OPS. But from June onward, Verlander conceded a .883 opp. OPS and a 7.89 ERA.
Verlander was left off the Astros’ postseason roster after a tough September, one that saw him give up 24 earned runs over 23.1 IP.
The home run ball was a significant problem for Verlander. Out of his 17 starts last season, he gave up at least one in 10. And, the 15 home runs he gave up last year was almost as much as he conceded in 2023 (18) over 162.1 IP.
However, there were positives despite the poor peripherals. While Verlander had a poor Whiff% (21.3%), he limited hard-hit contact (92nd percentile) and barreled-up baseballs. Additionally, Verlander maintained life on his four-seamer, and still had good break on his curveball and slider.
His fastball maintained elite IVB (19.3”), roughly three inches better than the league average. Verlander likes to work up liberally with that fastball, hence why’s traditionally a low ground-ball, high fly-ball pitcher. However, the velocity on his fastball, on average, dipped 0.8 MPH between 2023-24.
Verlander’s curveball retained above-average vertical movement (3.5” better than league average) and his slider, despite not being a mover, was still not bad. Lastly, Verlander made the much-expected move of using his changeup more, now that he’s at the twlight of his career. He used it 10.1% of the time last season.
Per ESPN, Justin Verlander will sign with the Giants on a one-year deal worth $15MM.
Analysis
Verlander will continue his career with the Giants, the team that denied the ace a World Series title in 2012. Six years afrer Detroit lost to the Cardinals in 2006, the Tigers met up with the Giants but lost in a four-game sweep.
Ex-Giant Pablo Sandoval hit two home runs off Verlander in Game 1, while Buster Posey, now the Giants’ president of baseball ops, notched two hits off the future Hall of Famer.
Getting back to 2025, San Francisco is a soft landing spot for Verlander. Yes, he’ll need to face some of the best hitters in the league in tough NL West. However, Verlander is a heavy fly-ball pitcher as mentioned previously; San Francisco, thanks to its surroundings, is a notoriously pitcher-friendly ballpark.
The Giants also need the depth. San Francisco lost co-ace Blake Snell to the Dodgers, leaving a massive hole in their rotation. Right now, Verlander would be part of a group that includes former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, and Hayden Birdsong. Prospects Mason Black and Carson Whisenhunt are among depth options.
Webb has been one of the game’s best over the last four seasons. Ray, meanwhile, has been an elite strikeout pitcher when healthy. There’s a lot of potential for the Giants’ 2025 rotation, in a year where that group will need to lift a heavy load.