Mets Sign Luis Severino: What to Make of Addition

The Mets have been quiet thus far in free agency, a stark departure from the Amazins’ past two offseasons. However, the team from Queens has made their first notable move of the winter. Former Yankees starter Luis Severino will reportedly join the Mets on a one-year deal. Here’s a look at his 2023 campaign, including the numbers and how Severino fits into the roster.

A Look at Severino

Five years ago, Luis Severino won 19 games for the Yankees, struck out 220 over 191.1 IP, and was one of the game’s premier young pitchers. However, a lot has happened to Severino since then.

Severino made just seven appearances between 2019-21 thanks to a litany of injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Lat problems limited Severino in 2022, but the righty struck out 112 over 102 frames in what was his first significant action since that 2018 campaign.

Things looked up for Severino heading into 2023 as he was set to be part of an elite rotation that included Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodón — until it all came crashing down. Lat problems crept up again for Severino, who didn’t make his season debut until May. When he was on the mound, he was far from effective.

Severino owned a 6.65 ERA and gave up 23 home runs and just 89.1 IP in 2023. Both figures ranked in the bottom 15 of the league among pitchers that threw at least 50 innings from May 21 – September 8. Not to mention, Severino’s Whiff% rate on the season dropped seven points from ’22 and he only struck out 79 over 89.1 IP.

When Severino succeeded in 2022, he could pound out and around the zone with a mid-90s fastball, coupled with a slider, cutter, and very good change. However, little worked for Severino in 2023 with regards to the fastball.

Severino missed plenty of bats in 2022, thanks in large part to his ability to work up with a riding fastball, beat righties with the slider, and lefties with the change.

Opposing batters hit .353 with an astonishing .468 wOBA and 15 home runs off the fastball. That’s a significant difference from the .186 AVG/.275 wOBA/9 HR from 2022.

The ex-Yankee’s induced vertical break on the fastball went down a bit in 2023. In 2022, Severino’s 17.4” IVB ranked close to what would be considered the above-average sweet spot of 18”. This past season, Severino’s IVB on the heat went down to 16.0”.

Less ride on the fastball isn’t ideal, and last season, Severino’s key weapon to setting up the slider and changeup was practically taken away from him.

Severino’s issues weren’t just with the fastball. Opposing hitters batted .280 with six home runs and nine extra-base hits off the slider. At times, it looked like a “cement mixer” would: no sliding movement away and sit right on the same line as it’s coming to the plate.

The deal is reportedly for one year at $13MM. It wasn’t, however, the only deal the Mets made on the 29th. Additionally, ESPN reported that the Mets also agreed to terms on a one-year deal with infielder Joey Wendle.

Analysis

The Mets take a flier on Severino, a starter who will get a mulligan after an injury-riddled 2023 and one with the potential to be at least a mid-rotation arm for New York.

As of now, the Mets’ available options for the rotation include Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, Tylor Megill, Jose Butto, and Joey Lucchesi. David Peterson will miss the start of 2024 due to hip surgery, but he’ll be an option later on in the year.

Butto, Megill, and Lucchesi all gave the Mets solid results over the final month, which makes them interesting options for a rotation that as of now has Quintana, Senga, and Severino as locks provided all three are healthy.

Additionally, the Mets are reportedly in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the standout Japanese right-hander who has plenty of suitors heading into December.

Getting back to Severino, it’ll be interesting to see what adjustments he makes with the Mets come 2024. But one interesting note is that the veteran right-hander made use of the sinker 2.8% of the time in 2023, a career-high.

Severino’s four-seamer didn’t play up to what one would want to see from him, so one has to wonder if one potential solution is to make more use of the two-seamer, a pitch that can be a weapon against righties if commanded well.