The Brewers, in first place in the NL Central but in need of pitching, swung a trade on July 3 for Aaron Civale. It marks the second consecutive year Civale has been traded, although the 29-year-old hasn’t been as sharp as compared to what he did in 2023. In return, the Brewers gave up infielder Gregory Barrios, a 20-year-old who hit well in High-A.
What the Brewers Get
- SP Aaron Civale (5.07 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 84 K over 87 IP)
Last season, the Rays dealt with many pitching injuries, including season-ending ones for Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen, by acquiring Aaron Civale from the Guardians. The move, on paper, made sense, given Civale had two years of control after 2023. Unfortunately, Civale didn’t replicate his success with Cleveland.
Civale recorded a strong 2.53 ERA/3.53 FIP with the Guardians before the July 2023 deal to Tampa. His ERA (5.36) took a jump as he conceded more hits with the Rays last season but missed significantly more bats and kept his walk rate low.
This season with Tampa, Civale averaged less than a strikeout per inning (8.7 K/9), a two-point percentage decrease in his chase rate, and a three percent increase in his Hard Hit% (39.5%). And his 5.07 ERA, among the 143 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 50 innings in 2024, is ranked 116th.
Civale is a kitchen-sink type of pitcher, as he uses five pitches (sweeper, cutter, sinker, curveball, four-seamer) over 10% of the time, along with a splitter and slider. The sweeper is a new addition this season.
His curveball, a pitch he stays on top of with regularity, is his best pitch. It’s a pitch with above-average movement (about 10% more per Statcast) and one that can drop like a rock. However, there are times it will just fall completely away from hitters, keeping them from chasing at it.
His sinker is a sinker in name only; it’s a running two-seamer he’ll leverage both up and down the strike zone. Hence, a reason why he has such a low GB% (33.5%) despite using a sinker. He’ll pair it with a high-carry four-seamer (18.5” average of IVB in 2024) and a cut fastball that is his go-to pitch against lefties.
With Aaron Civale sent to the Brewers via trade, the move ends Civale’s brief run with Tampa. Civale spent less than a calendar year with the Rays after Tampa acquired him for Kyle Manzardo.
Civale has one year left of control after 2024.
What the Rays Get
- SS Gregory Barrios (.325/.367/.429, 20 XBH over 256 PA in 2024) (A+)
The Brewers originally signed Gregory Barrios for $1M in the winter of 2021, oddly enough the same international class that produced Jackson Chourio. Barrios didn’t rise as quickly as Chourio but the 20-year-old was having a strong year at High-A before the move.
Barrios hit .325 (.796 OPS) with 18 stolen bases and 20 extra-base hits over 61 games with Wisconsin.
There’s not too much to Barrios’ game. He’s a contact-oriented infielder with a short swing and little power (likely a 30 future Power grade) but one with a good eye and won’t do too much at the plate. He’ll also use his above-average speed to beat out choppers in the infield.
Analysis
The Brewers rotation has taken significant hits this season, not counting Brandon Woodruff, who wasn’t going to pitch in 2024 anyway. Wade Miley, Robert Gasser, DL Hall, and Joe Ross are on the 60-day IL, leaving the first-place Brewers in scramble mode. Recently, Milwaukee traded for Dallas Keuchel but the Brewers needed more bodies.
The Brewers have received strong contributions from former Rays prospect Tobias Myers, who boasts a booming high-carry fastball, along with crafty Colin Rea, Keuchel, and staff ace Freddy Peralta. Civale won’t be asked to be an ace but just simply get outs.
It’ll also be interesting to see whether the Brewers leverage Civale, who only used his four-seamer 10.3% of the time in 2024, to use it more.
As for the Rays, Tampa moves on from a right-handed starter who has good stuff but just never clicked with the Rays. The Rays do have Jeffrey Springs on the way back from Tommy John, leaving Civale — who’s been the team’s worst-performing starter — on the outs.