On December 5, 2018, the Diamondbacks traded franchise slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the St. Louis Cardinals. It was a franchise-altering trade for both teams, but how does the trade look five years after it all happened? Let’s take a closer look at the Paul Goldschmidt trade and the return the two sides received.
Related: Revisiting the Manny Machado Trade to the Dodgers: Five Years Later
The Cardinals’ Return
| Position | Name | bWAR in MLB since trade | bWAR with Cardinals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | 21.8 | 21.8 |
The St. Louis Cardinals had quite the turbulent season in 2018, despite the fact that the team won 88 games. The Cards fired Mike Matheny midseason and failed to make the playoffs despite a strong second half.
To bolster an offense that ranked 14th in OPS (.730) in 2018, St. Louis made the move to acquire Paul Goldschmidt, who just came off his fourth 30+ home run campaign.
The Cardinals’ offense in 2019, however, regressed from an overall standpoint. Despite a career season from Paul DeJong in 2019, Matt Carpenter (.226/.334/.392, 15 HR) failed to come close to replicating his 36-home run campaign in 2018, while Harrison Bader hit just .205/.314/.366.
Goldschmidt did fine, though, as he hit 34 home runs in his first season as a Cardinal. And thanks to a strong pitching staff and timely hitting in the playoffs, St. Louis made it to the NLCS that campaign.
The now-36-year-old continued to be a steady contributor in both 2020 and 2021, the latter of which he was joined by Nolan Arenado. His finest season as Cardinal came in 2022, when he hit 35 home runs, drove in 115, and led the NL in OPS (.981) en route to his first NL MVP.
The Cardinals first baseman did have a down season in 2023 by his standards, as he posted a career-low in OPS (.810) and his lowest home run (25) total since 2016.
Nonetheless, it’s hard to find a more productive hitter in the Majors since the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Goldschmidt has the sixth-most hits (727) in the Majors since the start of 2019 and ranks in the top 20 in both home runs (131) and RBI (412).
From 2019-2023, Goldschmidt’s .873 OPS is 12th-best among all MLB hitters with at least 2,000 PA and third-best among first basemen. The only two with better OPS numbers in that span are Matt Olson (.886) and Freddie Freeman (.947).
The Diamondbacks’ Return
| Position | Name | bWAR in MLB since trade | bWAR with Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|---|
| P | Luke Weaver | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| INF | Andrew Young | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| C | Carson Kelly | 4.4 | 4.3 |
In return for the franchise slugger, the Diamondbacks received three young players — Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andrew Young — as well as a Competitive Balance B pick for the 2019 MLB Draft. That pick turned out to be Dominic Fletcher, who made his MLB debut in 2023.
The two key pieces to this deal were Weaver and Kelly, two high-end young players. Both Kelly and Weaver already had MLB experience behind them, with Weaver being the more productive of the two at that point. The righty was a former first-round pick and struck out 121 over 136.1 IP the year prior to the deal.
Weaver’s first season in Arizona was very good, albeit limited. The righty owned an impressive 2.94 ERA and 3.07 FIP across 64.1 IP and owned a 69:14 K:BB ratio. After that season, Weaver regressed.
Weaver went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA and 10 home runs allowed over 52 innings in 2020, and posted uneven results since then. Arizona traded Weaver to Kansas City in August 2022 for Emmanuel Rivera.
Kelly, meanwhile, was an infielder that converted to a catcher in the Cardinals system. The 29-year-old never had a chance to crack a regular role in St. Louis thanks to Yadier Molina, but did pretty early in his tenure with Arizona. Kelly established himself as the man in Arizona in his first season, as he hit .245/.348/.478 with 18 home runs over 111 games in 2019. Kelly would hit 13 more two years later and an OPS of .754.
However, Kelly’s offensive production (.211/.282/.334 over 104 G) declined in 2022 and he found himself on the outs a year later. Kelly’s time as a Diamondback ended in 2023, when Arizona DFA’d him just months after the acquisition of Gabriel Moreno.
Young, meanwhile, came off a 21-home run campaign between High-A and Double-A in 2018 and looked to be an intriguing infielder who could hit for power and get on base at a high clip.
However, that never manifested for Young. Young got two brief looks at the MLB level in 2020 and 2021 but hit .205/.319/.462 with a sky-high 39.9% K% in that time and hasn’t seen the Majors since then.
The Verdict
The Cardinals have never made it to the World Series since the Paul Goldschmidt trade, somewhat ironic given the Diamondbacks’ run to the NL pennant in 2023. Still, it’s impossible to argue the Cardinals lost the deal.
St. Louis parted with three pieces that have had some success in the Majors since the deal, but not had the same impact as Goldschmidt. The 36-year-old’s been one of the best all-around hitters in the game over the past five years, despite the Cardinals’ inability to get back to the Fall Classic.
As for the Diamondbacks, it did help that the Diamondbacks were able to catch lighting with Christian Walker, the former Orioles prospect who was a waiver claim back in 2017.
Since the trade, Walker owns a solid .795 OPS and 115 home runs, including two 30+ home run campaigns between 2022-23.