Royals Acquire Hunter Harvey from Nationals: What to Make of Trade

The Nationals and Royals have agreed to a mid-July trade, one that will see Hunter Harvey go to Kansas City amidst the latter’s push for a playoff spot. In exchange, the Nationals received the 39th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, plus Cayden Wallace. Wallace was ranked the second-best prospect in the Royals’ system, per MLB.com. Here’s a closer look at the Hunter Harvey-Royals trade.

The Royals’ Return

RP Hunter Harvey (4.20 ERA, 50 K over 45 IP)

Over the past two seasons, Hunter Harvey emerged as a strong reliever with the Nationals. The son of former Marlins closer Bryan Harvey, Hunter posted sub-3.00 ERA figures in each of the last two seasons. The 29-year-old, in 2023, struck out 67 over 60.2 IP, along with a sharp 26.3% Whiff%. His success and his stuff made him a premier setup man and a name that was talked about at the Trade Deadline last year.

Harvey can pound hitters with his hard fastball, which can make his splitter even more difficult to hit.

The Nationals retained Harvey last season. In 2024, his ERA jumped to 4.20, partly thanks to a jump in Hard Hit% (47.2%). Hitters have been more on top of his fastball in 2024, as the Whiff% rate on it is down by 3.5% and opposing batters are hitting .245 off it, up from .216 in 2023.

Still, opposing hitters are chasing more and whiffing more on his stuff this season, an overall plus.

Originally a top starter pitching prospect in the Orioles farm system, Harvey has a refined, deep arsenal to work with; not a shock with that in mind. His fastball has been hit more, but it’s still a strong offering. Harvey can pump into the upper-90s, which helps set up his best pitch, arguably his splitter. It’s a pitch that sits in the high-80s to low-90s with hard downward break.

Harvey will also pair those pitches with a curveball and slider. He’s used the curveball more in 2024; 9.9% in 2024, compared to 7.4% in 2023.

The ex-National looked like a potential closer in the making with Washington. That still could be the case. However, his path to the ninth inning was blocked by Kyle Finnegan, who notched 25 saves on the year to this point. Now, Hunter Harvey, after the trade to the Royals, will join a bullpen that could use some help.

The Nationals’ Return

3B Cayden Wallace (.280/.348/.406, 3 HR and 12 XBH over 161 PA (ROK & AA))
39th pick in 2024 MLB Draft

It’s been a tough 2024 campaign for 2022 second-round pick Cayden Wallace, who hasn’t played a game in Double-A since May 21. He’s been on the IL since late May but did play in some rehab games in late June and early July.

A good power hitter out of the University of Arkansas, Wallace posted a .553 SLG in his draft year with the Razorbacks. Across two levels (A+ and AA) in 2023, Wallace hit 13 home runs, 47 extra-base hits, and posted a .331 OBP over 131 games (568 PA).

The video of Wallace portrays a really interesting hitter. He has a short swing and bat speed, which likely means Wallace won’t be a plus power hitter. But, he could be a 15-20 home run hitter who can routinely accrue doubles and make hard contact. Wallace did a good job avoiding strikeouts, as he went down on strikes 117 times last season compared to 54 walks.

Wallace has also received high grades for his arm and defense.

Additionally, the Nationals get the 39th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. Competitive balance picks can’t be traded more than once.

Analysis

It’s amazing what a year can make for the Royals. After an offseason that saw Kansas City sign Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, along with bullpen adds and the maturation of their young players, the Royals are in the midst of a playoff hunt. Kansas City sits a game back of the third AL Wild Card spot as of July 13.

Now, Harvey does bring something different to the Royals bullpen. The 29-year-old is a power pitcher who can overwhelm hitters with high heat and get plenty of whiffs in strikeouts. Juxtapose that arsenal with Chris Stratton, John Schreiber, and Will Smith, pitchers who operate in the low 90s. Or, James McArthur, who primarily uses a curveball and mid-90s sinker.

Giving opposing hitters different looks is vital to any competitive team; just ask the Rangers from 2023, who added LHP Aroldis Chapman, oddly enough from Kansas City for Cole Ragans, last summer. Chapman gave the Rangers something that the team didn’t have: a hard-throwing lefty to pair with their right-handed hurlers. While Kansas City does have plenty of righties in their pen, the Royals didn’t have someone like Harvey.

Harvey has one full season of control after 2024.

As for the Nationals, Washington will likely not make the playoffs in 2024. Thus, the Nationals used Harvey to get a good third baseman prospect, one who could be the answer at the position in the long term. Although, the likes of Trey Lipscomb and Brady House might some something to say about that.