Just a few weeks after the Braves non-tendered Griffin Canning, the veteran right-hander lands with another NL East team. The Mets reportedly signed Griffin Canning to a one-year deal, giving the 29-year-old a chance to rebound after a tough 2024 season on a contender.
A Look at Canning
Last month, Griffin Canning was traded from the Angels to the Braves for OF/DH Jorge Soler. It was a straight money dump for the Braves, who opted not to tender the arbitration-eligible righty a deal for 2025 and instead let him walk.
When we went over the trade, I noted that Canning’s Angels career was a roller-coaster. The former second-round pick dealt with injuries and inconsistencies but up decent production in spurts. The 2023 campaign was arguably his best year despite a 4.32 ERA. Canning struck out a career-high 139 batters and posted an above-league-average 29.1% Whiff%.
However, last season was a significantly down season for Canning. The 28-year-old gave up 99 earned runs (5.19 ERA) and 31 home runs in 2024. His 1.629 HR/9 rate was 10th-worst among pitchers (min. 100 IP).
Those were poor numbers but there were some interesting metrics on Canning’s ledger from last season. One was that Canning was able to get hitters to chase, as his 29.2% Chase% was above the league average. Players made contact on pitches outside of the zone against Canning 53.9%, a career-low for him.
The 29-year-old is primarily a four-pitch pitcher. Canning leaned heavily on a four-seamer with roughly average IVB (16.2”), a slider with more depth than glove-side movement, a changeup, and curveball. His slider had the highest Whiff% rate out of all pitches, at 33.1%.
Canning also has a two-seamer, a pitch he only used one percent of the time in 2024. It’s a pitch he might leverage more next season and I’ll get to that in the next section.
Per reports, the Mets signed Griffin Canning to a one-year deal worth $4.25MM. Canning made $2.6MM last season.
Analysis
Before anything, I just want to show this two-seamer from Canning last season:
Canning’s two-seamer is hardly a sinker, as in the small sample size he used it last season, it moved down 5.7” below the league average. His two-seamer is more of a running fastball, interesting because that fits the mold of what the Mets had success with last season.
The Mets’ rotation included several pitchers — Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana — who leveraged two-seamers with more run than sink, working both up and down with the pitch.
Because of the similar pitch movement profile, expect Canning to use his sinker more, much like Manaea and Luis Severino did in 2024 when the two arrived in Queens.
It’s a project pickup for the Mets, one where New York (NL) is banking that likely future adjustments made will take Canning to another level. And, it continues a familar trend by the Mets.
The Mets have been heavily focused on short-term deals with pitchers over the last two offseasons. Manaea and Severino took short-term deals last winter, while Frankie Montas (two years) and Clay Holmes (three) are also not bound to the Mets long-term.
Canning won’t be guaranteed a spot in the rotation, given the Mets have Montas, Holmes, plus Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Tylor Megill. But, he will join a team that’s built a track record for reviving pitchers’ careers of late.