The Orioles have made several short-term acquisitions this offseason. Baltimore’s added Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton, Gary Sanchez, Tyler O’Neill, and Andrew Kittredge. Now, add Dylan Carlson to that list. The O’s signed Carlson to a one-year deal on January 27.
A Look at Carlson
Four years ago, Dylan Carlson was a name on the rise. The former first-round pick slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and 53 extra-base hits in St. Louis. That season saw Carlson finish third in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year vote. However, it’s been downholl since for Carlson.
The 26-year-old has yet to produce an OPS above .695 in a single season. Carlson had multiple IL stints in 2023 and last season, hit .209/.287/.277 (.564 OPS) with three home runs and 10 extra-base hits across 96 games.
The Cardinals traded Carlson to the Rays in July 2024 for reliever Shawn Armstrong.
Carlson is an interesting figure: a 6’2” outfielder who showed pop in 2021-22, doesn’t have a long swing, and a leg kick for timing. Going back to 2021, Carlson showed a good eye, with a penchant for staying back on non-fastballs and waiting for a good pitch.
That ability has served him well, even in 2024. Carlson had a low Chase% rate, at 24.8%. Which, has led to walk rates that’ve bordered between average to above-average. Hence, likely why analytically-friendly teams like Tampa and now Baltimore have given him a shot.
A switch-hitter, Carlson has better splits versus left-handed pitchers. The new Oriole outfielder hit .285/.361/.431 (.792 OPS) career against southpaws, compared to a .655 OPS versus RHP. Although his splits against lefties and righties were not great, his OPS (.603) was better against lefties, compared to right-handers (.533).
However, one big problem with Carlson last year was his inability to hit the fastball. He only hit .187 with a 29.8% Whiff% rate, and opposing teams took notice of that. Carlson saw fastballs at a career-most 57.9%, challenging him rather than giving him a breaking ball or offspeed pitch.
Defensively, Carlson’s arm has rated above-average and aside from 2024, had above-average range per Statcast. He’s played all three outfield positions in his career. But, he profiles better as a corner outfielder.
The Orioles signed Dylan Carlson to a one-year deal. Shortstop Jacob Amaya, claimed off waivers from the White Sox earlier in the month, was DFA’d as a corresponding move.
Analysis
The addition of Carlson gives Baltimore options, specifically with how the O’s can align their lineup without Anthony Santander — but don’t get it twisted. Carlson wasn’t signed to be a regular.
The Orioles have an outfield set for 2025, between the newcomer, ex- Red Sox Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser. Baltimore also has depth, between Carlson, Daz Cameron, and former first-round pick Heston Kjerstad.
That depth will be critical, especially since the injury bug can always bite. O’Neill’s had a history of injuries, while Kjerstad missed time with a concussion in 2024.
Should any of their outfielders hit the IL in 2025, the O’s will have help to deal with it. Especially, when taking into account that Baltimore don’t have a lot of MLB-ready depth in the Minors, as far as outfielders are concerned. Vance Honeycutt and Enrique Bradfield are likely at least a year away, while Dylan Beavers may need more time in Triple-A.