Over the past two seasons, the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Padres have engaged in an arms race for power in the NL West. That race continued during the late-night hours of December 27 when news broke that Corbin Burnes was headed to the Diamondbacks. The move not only gives Arizona another powerful arm to deal with the Dodgers and Padres but also provide security over the coming years.
A Look at Burnes
Very few pitchers have been able to do what Corbin Burnes has over the past four seasons. The 30-year-old right-hander posted a bWAR of 16.5 from 2021-24, fourth-best in baseball over that span. The only three with more were Zack Wheeler (22.6), Logan Webb (17.9), and Gerrit Cole (17.7).
Max Fried, fifth on that list, secured himself an eight-year deal worth over $200MM in December.
Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, recorded the second-most strikeouts (858) in that span. The new Diamondback only struck out 181 over 194.1 IP last season with Baltimore, the first time since 2020 when he didn’t strike out 200+ in a single season.
Last season with the Orioles, Burnes posted strong Barrel% (6.7%), Whiff% (28.6%), and Chase% (33.0%). He posted a 2.92 ERA, partly inflated by a tough August where he gave up 21 earned runs over 25.2 IP (7.36 ERA).
Burnes, acquired from Milwaukee in February, turned himself into an ace in 2020, thanks to the addition of a sharp cutter that’s become his ace pitch. His cutter is very different compared to most, given that not only it breaks in but also carries up. Burnes’ cutter last season had a mean IVB of 12.5”, 4.2” better than the league average.
That rising action makes it very difficult to pick up optically, especially when Burnes routinely throws it in the mid-90s.
The 30-year-old’s cutter is not the only pitch that has plus movement. Basically every offering in his arsenal has above-average movement. His curveball dropped 3.0” better than the league average in 2024, his sweeper broke away 2.9” more than the average.
He’ll also pair those pitches with a hard sinker that’ll hit the upper-90s, plus a changeup with about eight MPH difference.
Burnes is a proven postseason arm, as well. He threw six scoreless in the 2021 NLDS against the World Series champion Braves, and nearly beat the Royals himself in the 2024 AL Wild Card Round with eight strong innings. He didn’t get a win in either of those games but Burnes wasn’t to blame.
Reports indicate Corbin Burnes will receive a six-year, $210MM deal with the Diamondbacks. Burnes will also receive an opt-out clase after the 2026 season.
Analysis
At first glance, the signing of Corbin Burnes might surprise some. The Diamondbacks, despite being a highly-competitive team and the team with the largest year-to-year rise in attendance (h/t Baseball-Reference), don’t have a significant stream of local TV revenue.
Plus, Arizon had aboud $50MM already committed to their 2025 rotation before Burnes. That doesn’t take into account Zac Gallen, in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
That second point is critical. Gallen can test the market after 2025, as can Merrill Kelly and Jordan Montgomery. With the prospect of possibly losing three starters next winter, the Burnes acquisition gives Arizona security.
But for the interim, what a rotation the Diamondbacks have built themselves. A tenative top-five of Burnes, Gallen, Kelly, Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez gives the D-Backs two of the top nine starters in bWAR from 2022-24, and three of the top 23.
And if Montgomery and Rodriguez can find their form, that’s a formidable rotation.
As for Burnes, the 30-year-old netted himself the fifth-largest contract in baseball among pitchers — fourth if you don’t count Shohei Ohtani. Burnes also secured himself an opt-out after 2026. But with an AAV of $35MM, Burnes may not decide to opt out of that deal.