The Orioles will play October baseball yet again. Baltimore locked up their 2024 MLB Postseason birth in late September and will be the #4 seed in the American League. The O’s 2024 season wasn’t as pretty as 2023. But, there were many positives and several breakout campaigns from youngsters who could play big roles next month.
The Good
The Orioles’ offense in 2023 was rather impressive. Baltimore posted 807 runs last season to finish 7th in MLB. And much like last year, the Orioles’ bats were productive. As of September 26, 2024, the O’s stood at 763 runs after 158 games played, fifth-best across the Majors.
Baltimore’s offense was led primarily by infielder Gunnar Henderson and outfielder Anthony Santander. Henderson cracked 37 home runs in 2024 and stole 21 bases for the O’s. His .905 OPS ranked seventh-best in the American League. And as for Santander, the pending free agent blasted a career-high 41 home runs, second-most in the American League.
Aside from those two, several former first-round picks from Baltimore’s cache of prospects also turned into regulars. Jordan Westburg posted a .814 OPS (135 OPS+) and belted 49 extra-base hits (18 HR) for the O’s in what was an All-Star season for the 25-year-old. Colton Cowser, meanwhile, hit 23 home runs and solidified the O’s outfield. Cowser’s performance could win him the AL Rookie of the Year, which would mark the second-straight year an Orioles won it.
As far as the O’s pitching is concerned, Corbin Burnes navigated some hiccups in the second half — he had a 7.36 ERA in August — to produce a strong season after the big pre-season trade. Burnes owns a respectable 2.92 ERA on the year, along with an above-average 28.2% Whiff% rate and 22.4% K% rate. His strikeout numbers dropped between 2023 (25.5%) and this year. But, his Chase% ticked up almost three percentage points.
Burnes captained a rotation that saw several pleasant surprises. Albert Suarez, who last pitched in the Majors in 2017 before turns in Korea and Japan, logged over 120 innings with the Birds. Midseason acquisition Zach Eflin (2.60 ERA, 47 K over 55.1 IP) lines up as the O’s #2 heading into October.
The Bad
Reliever Craig Kimbrel was brought on board this past winter to replace Felix Bautista, sidelined for all of this season thanks to Tommy John surgery. Kimbrel has been a long-time closer but also had some ugly moments in Los Angeles and Philadelphia between 2022-23. Unfortunately for Kimbrel, things didn’t work out better in Baltimore.
Kimbrel’s Chase% plummeted to 22.3% — a six percentage point difference from 2023 — and his fastball velocity dipped. The now-former Oriole gave up seven home runs off his fastball, which garnered less whiffs, as well. He’s never possessed great control but more hittable pitches, coupled with bad command, led to Kimbrel getting DFA’d in September.
The good news for the O’s is that their bullpen has somewhat stabilized of late. Danny Coulombe is healthy, while Yennier Cano has been strong, as well. Seranthony Dominguez, acquired in July from the Phillies, took over as closer in Baltimore but he’s had his moments. Dominguez surrendered six home runs over his first 21 innings as an Oriole.
Another issue for the O’s, who has one of the game’s best offenses, was the dip in production from Adley Rutschman. Heading into play on September 26, Rutschman’s numbers (.250/.320/.393, 19 HR and 40 XBH over 144 GP) weren’t terrible. However, most of that production came in the first half, as 16 of those 19 homers were before the All-Star break.
Since the second half, Rutschman owned the seventh-lowest OPS (.585) in the league (min. 200 PA). It’s a concern given Rutschman’s status as an on-base sparkplug, as he was a mainstay in the #2 hole for the first half. However, the O’s have shifted Rutschman (.284 OBP in the second half) around the lineup over the last few weeks, including in the #9 spot as late as September 18.
What to Expect from the Orioles in October
The O’s missed out on a second straight AL East title in 2024. But, Baltimore did make the playoffs and will likely host an AL Wild Card Round series. That’s the good news. However, there are some negatives heading into October.
Arguably the biggest is that the Birds won’t get Grayson Rodriguez back. Baltimore believed there wasn’t enough time for Rodriguez, on the IL with right teres/lat discomfort, to ramp up and return for the O’s. It’s a massive blow for the Orioles, as Rodriguez is arguably the team’s second-best starter and his power stuff was electric again this season. Not to mention, the Orioles were already short on pitching. Baltimore lost Kyle Bradish earlier in the season.
Had Rodriguez been healthy, the O’s could have lined up Burnes, Rodriguez, and Eflin in any order for the Wild Card Round. That would have been a formidable trio. Now, that’s not meant to be.
Additionally, the O’s come into October with slumping bats. Besides Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn posted a .572 OPS in September. Rookie Jackson Holliday‘s .374 OPS is third-worst in September (min. 50 PA), ahead of only Blake Perkins (Brewers) and J.D. Martinez (Mets).
But even with those negative plotlines, few teams have the talent the Birds have. As noted earlier, Baltimore possesses arguably the deepest lineup in the American League and the top of their rotation is strong. It would behoove the O’s to make the most of this run, especially since this could be the only one Baltimore gets with Burnes.