The highest-drafted pitcher from the 2024 MLB Draft is on his way to the Majors. Chase Burns, the second overall pick last July, will join the Reds next week. Burns will become the fourth top-10 pick from last year to debut within a year of the 2024 Draft. Also, help fill out a Reds rotation that’s lost depth lately.
A Look at Burns
Chase Burns had an interesting road to Cincinnati.
Burns began 2023 as the likely co-ace alongside Chase Dollander — who debuted with the Rockies this season — with Tennessee. However, command problems caused Burns to be moved to the bullpen, and ultimately, led to him transferring to Wake Forest and their vaunted pitching lab.
The right-hander couldn’t be touched last year with Wake Forest. Burns struck out 191 batters over 100 innings with the Demon Deacons, thirty more than Hagen Smith, who finished second in Division I. That performance skyrocketed Burns up draft boards and ultimately, was selected second overall by the Reds.
Burns raced through three levels this season. He made three starts at Dayton (A+) before moving to Double-A. With the Lookouts, Burns struck out 55 and walked just four, pushing his way to Triple-A in a matter of six weeks.
Burns was simply dominant in Triple-A. He struck out 14 over 12.1 IP, while opposing hitters batted .171 off the right-hander. That four-seamer fastball had a 25% Whiff%, while the slider had a 50% Whiff%.
When Burns was in college, he could overwhelm hitters with two pitches, a four-seam fastball that regularly hit triple digits and a plus-plus slider. Since going pro, those are still his two go-to pitches.
Burns’ fastball topped out at 101 MPH while in Louisville. It has above-average carrying action (17.4” mean IVB) and flirted in the 20” IVB range at points. The slider, meanwhile, is a hard one that sits in the upper-80s with above-average downward breaking action.
As far as how it compares to the MLB average, Burns’ slider had roughly 1.45” more vertical action than the league average. Which is a very difficult thing for opposing hitters to deal with, especially when considering he can dial it up velocity-wise with the fastball upstairs.
Additionally, Burns used a high-80s to low-90s changeup, an offering he used a fair amount (12%). There’s also a curveball that Burns used sporadically and blended, movement-wise, with the curve.
Command was Burns’ biggest issue while in Knoxville. However, it was less about walks and more about preventing contact. He didn’t walk many batters in Wake Forest, nor at the pro level.
Per The New York Times, Chase Burns will make his Reds debut on June 24 against the Yankees.
Analysis
The Reds took roughly the same approach with Burns that the organization did with Rhett Lowder — who also went to Wake Forest — in 2024. Cincinnati started Burns in High-A, and in little time, he pushed his way up to the Majors. However, it’s hard to say this outcome was easy to predict.
For one, Burns was simply dominant. His stuff last season was good enough to pitch in the Majors out of the bullpen, and now, he’ll get a chance to prove it in the Reds’ rotation.
Two, the Reds have been besieged by pitching injuries (again).
Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, Rhett Lowder, and most recently, Wade Miley, are on the injured list. The Reds have received great contributions from Andrew Abbott this season, while both Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez have eaten up innings.
Burns will now look to fill out the rest of the rotation. It won’t be easy, as Burns will need to prove that arsenal — as powerful as it is — can work at the MLB level & get outs in Cincy.
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