The Braves snuck into the 2024 MLB Postseason and NL Wild Card Round on the final day of the regular season, which set up a matchup with the Padres. San Diego is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2022, while Atlanta will look to avenge demons after the Braves were bounced in the NLDS the past two seasons. Here’s a closer look at the series.
Scheduled Starters and Start Times
- Game 1: AJ Smith-Shawver (Braves) vs. Michael King (Padres)
- Game 2: Max Fried (Braves) vs. Joe Musgrove (Padres)
- Game 3: TBD vs. Dylan Cease (Padres)
Games 1 & 2 will air at 8:38 PM ET on October 1 and 2, respectively. Game 3 is scheduled for 7:08 ET on the 2nd. The first and third games are scheduled for ESPN, while the middle game is scheduled to run on ESPN2. Times and channels are subject to change.
A Look at the Offenses
| Stat |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 704 | 760 |
| Home Runs | 213 | 190 |
| OPS | .724 | .745 |
| Whiff% | 27.5% | 20.2% |
| Hard Hit% | 42.6% | 38.6% |
The 2024 Braves’ offense looked the exact opposite of their 2023 counterpart. One year after the Braves led MLB in runs scored (907) and home runs (307), Atlanta scored 203 runs fewer this season.
There were a myriad of reasons why this happened. One, was injuries. Ronald Acuna Jr. hit just four home runs over the first third of 2024 before he succumbed to a season-ending knee injury. Austin Riley, who suffered nearly an 80-point drop in OPS, is also done for the year. Matt Olson was snake-bitten despite hitting balls hard and wound up with 29 home runs, 25 fewer than a year earlier.
So, how did the Braves get here? Marcell Ozuna continued to torment pitchers, en route to a 39-home run campaign. Midseason acquisitions Whit Merrifield, Ramon Laureano, and Jorge Soler provided depth and in the cases of the latter two, power. Laureano and Soler belted a combined 20 home runs for the Braves. Michael Harris II hit .316/.344/.579 (.923 OPS) with eight home runs in September.
As for the Padres, San Diego navigated some turbulent waters early on. Through the end of May, Machado — who recovered from elbow surgery early in 2024 — posted a .654 OPS and didn’t hit for much power; nine extra-base hits in 55 games. From June 1 onward, Machado hit .294/.343/.536 with 24 home runs and 43 extra-base hits in 97 games.
Machado was part of a deep offense, one that got better with the acquisition of three-time batting champion Luis Arraez. The addition of Arraez gave San Diego a much-needed leadoff man who could hit his way on base and set up for Machado and company.
Add in an All-Star campaign from Jurickson Profar and 24 home runs from rookie Jackson Merrill, it’s not hard to see how the Padres finished 2024 eighth in runs scored.
A Look at the Pitching
| Stat | | |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 3.58 | 3.91 |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.32 | 3.78 |
| Strikeouts | 1,553 | 1,453 |
| Opponents’ AVG | .236 | .238 |
| Chase% | 30.7% | 29.3% |
It’s a matchup between two pitching staffs who ranked in the top six of MLB in strikeouts. San Diego finished sixth, while Atlanta ranked #1 in that category. Atlanta’s success was largely due to terrific starters and a rejuvenated ace.
Chris Sale, acquired from the Red Sox in December, will likely win the NL Cy Young after winning the Triple Crown. However, Sale is a non-factor in this series. He was left off the Wild Card roster due to back spasms.
Instead, the load will be shouldered upon Max Fried, the Braves’ anchor for years, AJ Smith-Shawver, and likely Reynaldo Lopez should the series go the distance.
Meanwhile, San Diego will run out a trio of the game’s hottest MLB pitchers.
Michael King ranked in the top 15 in ERA (2.11) from August 15 through the end of the season (min. 30 IP) and struck out 47 over 49. Joe Musgrove, who was electric in NL Wild Card Round two years ago, ranked tied for sixth in the NL in strikeouts (56) from that August 15 date, alongside Max Fried. Dylan Cease struck out 224 over a resurgent 2024 campaign.
Robert Suarez leads a different-looking and deep bullpen for the Padres. Just over the last year, San Diego added relievers Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, Jason Adam, and Tanner Scott.
Our Prediction
The Braves received the first-round bye in 2022 and 2023 but fell in the NLDS to Philadelphia. One could argue playing in the NL Wild Card could be a blessing, just to avoid a week-long hangover. But, the circumstances why the Braves here are concerning.
With several key bats missing and no Chris Sale or Spencer Schwellenbach — the latter of whom pitched on September 30 and is off the roster — the Braves are nowhere near as deep.
The Padres, meanwhile, have a healthy group and look primed to do damage after a strong 2024 season. In fact, the Padres may have the deepest team — especially in their starting pitching ranks, as mentioned earlier — among the Wild Card participants. We’ll take the Padres in this series.
Check out Wild Card previews for the Tigers/Astros, Royals/Orioles, and Mets/Brewers series.