A Look at Chapman

The Giants originally signed third baseman Matt Chapman in March after the former All-Star spent all of the winter in free agency. It was a three-year, $54MM deal with opt-outs and a mutual option for 2027, the first of which could be triggered after this season. The move marked a return to the Bay Area for Chapman and he’s produced in his first season with the Giants.

The four-time Gold Glover hit .247/.333/.445 (.778) with 22 home runs and 66 extra-base hits this season with the Giants. Chapman also set a career-high in stolen bases (13). He rated in the 98th percentile in bat speed (76.7 MPH) and 85th percentile in Barrel% (12.7%).

Unsurprisingly given the pitcher-friendly confines in San Francisco, 14 of his 22 home runs came on the road. But, Chapman — who has five 20+ home run campaigns under his belt — maintained a high level of production he’s recorded throughout his career.

Over the last four seasons, Chapman’s been one of the game’s most prolific offensive threats at the hot corner. The Giants’ third baseman came into play on September 5 ninth in total bases (889) and slugging (.426, min. 2,000 PA), and seventh in total home runs (93) between 2021-24 among players at third (min. 65% total starts). And much like has been for much of his career, Chapman’s provided elite defense at the third base position.

He owns a +7 OAA this season, which puts him at +61 for his career. Over the last four seasons, just Ke’Bryan Hayes has a better OAA than Chapman (+17), at +18.

Matt Chapman’s new contract will begin in 2025 during his age-32 season per ESPN. He’ll receive $151MM over six seasons, which will keep him under contract through his age-37 season.

Analysis

Chapman got a long-term deal months after not being able to during the 2023-24 offseason. He’ll turn the roughly $37MM in options remaining into a six-year deal that nets stability.

As for the Giants, the front office retained arguably their most productive hitter this season. His 22 home runs are first on the team, ahead of Heliot Ramos (20 HR) and Michael Conforto (15 HR). The re-signing comes amidst the Giants’ struggle to either retain or reel in big names over the past few years. Carlos Rodon finished sixth in the NL Cy Young vote two years ago but opted to go to The Bronx after the 2022 season. San Francisco also attempted to woo Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani but failed.

Now, one could argue this is a departure from norms for an analytically-driven team. More often or not, big-time contracts are derived from past production, not necessarily what a player will do over the coming years. Even though, teams don’t make a move like this unless it’s a good bet, which sometimes doesn’t manifest).

Sure, Chapman checks the boxes; he’s an elite hard-contact machine with very good discipline at the plate and great fielding instincts at the third base position. But, there’s always the fear of regression.

Nolan Arenado isn’t a great comparison thanks to his ability to make contact but it’s not a bad one. Both Chapman and Arenado — in their primes — proved to be productive power hitters who provide excellent defense. However, take a look at what Arenado’s done two years since his age-31 campaign when he flourished in St. Louis during his second season with the birds:

• 2022 (age-31): .293/.358/.533 (.891 OPS), 30 HR and 73 extra-base hits (620 PA)
• 2023 (age-32): .266/.315/.459 (.774 OPS), 26 HR and 54 extra-base hits (612 PA)
• 2024 (age-33): .266/.317/.395 (.712 OPS), 15 HR and 36 extra-base hits (559 PA)

Numbers like this have to be in the back of the minds of organizations. Projecting when a player’s production is difficult. When it happens, it happens. But for the Giants, the hope has to be this; give us meaningful offensive numbers for the next few seasons and then figure out the rest.

And, it’s hard not to note that Alex Bregman‘s camp may have somewhat of a comparable for his upcoming deal. It’s not an exact one; Bregman has better offensive numbers (124 OPS+, 69 HR from 2022-24) than Chapman (114 OPS+, 39 HR), although Chapman is a better defender.